One of the first things the veterans here in the CTV Parliamentary Bureau — guys with names like Fife, Oliver and Duffy — said when I embarked on my first election campaign was that any pollster who tries to foist seat projections on you should be avoided at all costs. “Voodoo polling!”, they told me. So with that as a warning, let me do a little voodoo.
Grabbing the data from Elections Canada, I looked through the riding-by-riding results and applied the most recent poll numbers supplied to us from our pollster, The Strategic Counsel, against the results for the Jan. 23, 2006 election. So, for example, if the Green Party grabbed 4 per cent of the national vote at election time and our pollster says that 12 per cent of Canadians would now vote Green, I simply multipled the number of votes each Green candidate in the last election received by three. I did this for each of the five major parties and I used the regional results — Quebec, Ontario, West, “Rest of Canada” — where applicable. The Conservatives in the last election took 36 per cent of the national vote but our pollster says they now have 34 per cent of the national vote. So my method would be to multiply the votes of all the Conservative candidates by 0.9444 because 34 per cent support is 94.44 per cent of 36 per cent.
So I figured out the ‘multiplier’ for each party in each region; applied that multiplier to the last election results; and then took a look at what happened.
Well, you won’t be surprised to hear that, in Alberta, even if every Green candidate tripled their votes, it still wouldn’t be enough to knock off any Conservative candidate who gets 94.44 per cent of what they got on Jan. 23. Following along?
Now, I’m sure professional statisticians would find this methodology highly error-prone. I’m not accounting for any margins of error in the polling data and the margin of error is very high for some of the regional data. And I’m not accounting for some unique races (say Jack Layton vs Bob Rae in Toronto-Danforth) that might happen in the next election. And I’m also giving Halton back to the Tories and Vancouver-Kingsway back to the Liberals.
Still, the results, below, I think, give those of us, like me, who believe that the cards just aren’t right for anyone right now to call an election. There just doesn’t seem to be much movement between the two major government-forming parties.
So with all that pre-amble, here’s my guess at what the results would look like if we were to have an election tomorrow and everyone voted pretty much the way they told our pollster last week:
A Conservative Minority Government with the following seat allocation:
- Conservatives: 121 (net loss of four seats)
- Liberals: 109 (Net gain of eight seats*)
- BQ: 56 (Net gain of five seats)
- NDP: 21 (Net loss of eight seats)
- Independent: 1 (no change)
- Greens: 0
* The vacant seat – Outremont — was held by a Liberal so this gain of one seat comes at no other party’s expense.
Some observations:
- By and large, where Conservatives won, they would win big again. So small changes in the vote totals either way won’t affect their overall seat standing.
- In Quebec, the Conservatives just squeaked by the BQ candidate in many ridings and so, a slight loss of Conservative support and slight increase in BQ support would knock Conservatives out. The Liberals who have won in Quebec have healthy margins and their support is slightly better now than it was on Jan. 23. Of some note, in my list below, I have two Conservative Cabinet ministers who could be vulnerable.
- The NDP takes the biggest hit. Their gains on Jan. 23 were in races where they just squeaked in. But that support isn’t there now and the Liberals would benefit most from the lost NDP support. And if people are criticizing Stephane Dion for taking his party to the left, well, perhaps these numbers might give you a sense of why that might be a smart move.
- The Greens might finish second in some races but, based on the polling numbers, they’re still not strong enough in any one riding to win.
So who’s at risk of losing their seat? Here’s my list:
PROV | RIDING | OUT | IN | |
BC | Burnaby–Douglas | Bill Siksay | NDP | Liberal |
BC | Vancouver Kingsway | David Emerson | Conservative | Liberal |
BC | West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country | Blair Wilson | Liberal | Conservative |
NS | West Nova | Robert Thibault | Liberal | Conservative |
ON | Halton | Garth Turner | Liberal | Conservative |
ON | Hamilton East–Stoney Creek | Wayne Marston | NDP | Liberal |
ON | Hamilton Mountain | Chris Charlton | NDP | Liberal |
ON | London–Fanshawe | Irene Mathyssen | NDP | Liberal |
ON | Mississauga–Streetsville | Wajid Khan | Conservative | Liberal |
ON | Ottawa Centre | Paul Dewar | NDP | Liberal |
ON | Parkdale–High Park | Peggy Nash | NDP | Liberal |
ON | Parry Sound–Muskoka | Tony Clement | Conservative | Liberal |
ON | Sault Ste. Marie | Tony Martin | NDP | Liberal |
ON | Trinity–Spadina | Olivia Chow | NDP | Liberal |
QC | Beauport–Limoilou | Sylvie Boucher | Conservative | BQ |
QC | Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles | Daniel Petit | Conservative | BQ |
QC | Jonquière–Alma | Jean-Pierre Blackburn | Conservative | BQ |
QC | Louis-Hébert | Luc Harvey | Conservative | BQ |
QC | Pontiac | Lawrence Cannon | Conservative | BQ |
QC | Outremont | Vacant | Vacant | Liberal |
SK | Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River | Gary Merasty | Liberal | Conservative |