If an election were held today …

One of the first things the veterans here in the CTV Parliamentary Bureau — guys with names like Fife, Oliver and Duffy — said when I embarked on my first election campaign was that any pollster who tries to foist seat projections on you should be avoided at all costs. “Voodoo polling!”, they told me. So with that as a warning, let me do a little voodoo.

Grabbing the data from Elections Canada, I looked through the riding-by-riding results and applied the most recent poll numbers supplied to us from our pollster, The Strategic Counsel, against the results for the Jan. 23, 2006 election. So, for example, if the Green Party grabbed 4 per cent of the national vote at election time and our pollster says that 12 per cent of Canadians would now vote Green, I simply multipled the number of votes each Green candidate in the last election received by three. I did this for each of the five major parties and I used the regional results — Quebec, Ontario, West, “Rest of Canada” — where applicable. The Conservatives in the last election took 36 per cent of the national vote but our pollster says they now have 34 per cent of the national vote. So my method would be to multiply the votes of all the Conservative candidates by 0.9444 because 34 per cent support is 94.44 per cent of 36 per cent.

So I figured out the ‘multiplier’ for each party in each region; applied that multiplier to the last election results; and then took a look at what happened. 

Well, you won’t be surprised to hear that, in Alberta, even if every Green candidate tripled their votes, it still wouldn’t be enough to knock off any Conservative candidate who gets 94.44 per cent of what they got on Jan. 23. Following along?

Now, I’m sure professional statisticians would find this methodology highly error-prone. I’m not accounting for any margins of error in the polling data and the margin of error is very high for some of the regional data. And I’m not accounting for some unique races (say Jack Layton vs Bob Rae in Toronto-Danforth) that might happen in the next election. And I’m also giving Halton back to the Tories and Vancouver-Kingsway back to the Liberals.

Still, the results, below, I think, give those of us, like me, who believe that the cards just aren’t right for anyone right now to call an election. There just doesn’t seem to be much movement between the two major government-forming parties.

So with all that pre-amble, here’s my guess at what the results would look like if we were to have an election tomorrow and everyone voted pretty much the way they told our pollster last week:

A Conservative Minority Government with the following seat allocation:

  1. Conservatives: 121 (net loss of four seats)
  2. Liberals: 109 (Net gain of eight seats*)
  3. BQ: 56 (Net gain of five seats)
  4. NDP: 21 (Net loss of eight seats)
  5. Independent: 1 (no change)
  6. Greens: 0

* The vacant seat – Outremont — was held by a Liberal so this gain of one seat comes at no other party’s expense.

Some observations:

  • By and large, where Conservatives won, they would win big again. So small changes in the vote totals either way won’t affect their overall seat standing.
  • In Quebec, the Conservatives just squeaked by the BQ candidate in many ridings and so, a slight loss of Conservative support and slight increase in BQ support would knock Conservatives out. The Liberals who have won in Quebec have healthy margins and their support is slightly better now than it was on Jan. 23. Of some note, in my list below, I have two Conservative Cabinet ministers who could be vulnerable.
  • The NDP takes the biggest hit. Their gains on Jan. 23 were in races where they just squeaked in. But that support isn’t there now and the Liberals would benefit most from the lost NDP support. And if people are criticizing Stephane Dion for taking his party to the left, well, perhaps these numbers might give you a sense of why that might be a smart move.
  • The Greens might finish second in some races but, based on the polling numbers, they’re still not strong enough in any one riding to win.

So who’s at risk of losing their seat? Here’s my list:

PROV RIDING OUT IN
BC Burnaby–Douglas Bill Siksay NDP Liberal
BC Vancouver Kingsway David Emerson Conservative Liberal
BC West Vancouver–Sunshine Coast–Sea to Sky Country Blair Wilson Liberal Conservative
NS West Nova Robert  Thibault Liberal Conservative
ON Halton Garth Turner Liberal Conservative
ON Hamilton East–Stoney Creek Wayne Marston NDP Liberal
ON Hamilton Mountain Chris Charlton NDP Liberal
ON London–Fanshawe Irene Mathyssen NDP Liberal
ON Mississauga–Streetsville Wajid Khan Conservative Liberal
ON Ottawa Centre Paul Dewar NDP Liberal
ON Parkdale–High Park Peggy Nash NDP Liberal
ON Parry Sound–Muskoka Tony Clement Conservative Liberal
ON Sault Ste. Marie Tony Martin NDP Liberal
ON Trinity–Spadina Olivia Chow NDP Liberal
QC Beauport–Limoilou Sylvie Boucher Conservative BQ
QC Charlesbourg–Haute-Saint-Charles Daniel Petit Conservative BQ
QC Jonquière–Alma Jean-Pierre Blackburn Conservative BQ
QC Louis-Hébert Luc Harvey Conservative BQ
QC Pontiac Lawrence Cannon Conservative BQ
QC Outremont Vacant Vacant Liberal
SK Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River Gary Merasty Liberal Conservative

 

Finley vs the Liberals

Diane FinleyThe Liberals believe that Immigration Minister Diane Finley’s limo expenses are out of line. Here’s the Question Period exchange between Liberal Todd Russell and Finley (left). (Finley was the Human Resources Minister when these expenses were incurred.)

Mr. Todd Russell (Labrador, Lib.) :
Mr. Speaker, here is another example of how Conservatives waste the taxpayers' dollar.
This past July the former human resources minister went to Winnipeg to present a fake $100 child benefit cheque.
Her flight alone cost 20 times the monthly child care benefit, but now we learn that she exceeds the Juno joy-riding heritage minister for her love of limousine travel.

While on a junket, she spent $750 on limousine rides, almost eight times the worth of her so-called child care benefit.
The cheque was fake; her expenses were not. How can she justify them to the Canadian parents that she has shortchanged?

*   *   *

Hon. Diane Finley (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, going to Winnipeg to make the announcement was part of our campaign to ensure that all parents who were eligible for the universal child care benefit were aware of it, were aware that it had been launched and how they could apply for it.

All my expenses were perfectly within the guidelines.

*   *   *

Mr. Todd Russell (Labrador, Lib.) :
Mr. Speaker, back home we would say that the bottom is gone right out of her.
The same minister blew another $800 on limousine service to a Confederation Club luncheon on April 20.
Last March she wasted $1,300 on airfare and yes, another limo ride to promote the student summer job program. Some promo. This is the same program her government slashed by $55 million, eliminating 25,000 student jobs.

Why do Conservatives value limo rides more than they value Canadian students and Canadian parents?

*   *   *

Hon. Diane Finley (Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, once again, all of my expenses were completely within the guidelines for ministerial expenses.
However, there is a question I would like to ask. Why are my colleagues so concerned about expenses, which they are comparing to the universal child care benefit, when it is their leader who said he would take away the universal child care benefit?

 A few minutes after this exchange, in the foyer of the House of Commons, Finley answer reporters questions on this matter.

Finley hired a limousine service to take her on Sept. 8 from her home in Simcoe, Ont. to the Western Fair in London and back home. The cost of this service was $862.50. It’s about 100 kilometres one way between Simcoe and London.

Reporter:  Why would you get a limo to go to the Western Fair from where you live?

Finley: Well there aren’t any other alternatives except to drive and…

Reporter: Yes, a lot of people do.

Finley: That’s what a lot of people do. At this point in time my doctors have advised against it.

Reporter: Against driving all together, you can’t drive?

Finley: It’s still legal but it isn’t the safest thing around. You know I take advantage of the services available to get me there. When you live in a place where I do we can’t fly the Challenger in so I take a car. I don’t take the car because we can’t get one but I do take the car even if the Challenger could come unlike my Liberal predecessors.

Reporter: Could you get a friend to give you a lift?

Finley: No, most of my friends work and aren’t available to do those sorts of things.

Reporter: But did you need a limo?

Finley: It wasn’t a limo, it was a car. It’s I believe the model is a Crown Victoria but it’s not a limousine, no.

Reporter: It’s a limousine service I guess, that’s what it is?

Finley: It’s a limousine service, the car seats four. So this is greatly overblown.

Reporter: Can you refresh my memory why you can’t drive again?

Finley: I have a genetic thyroid condition called Graves Disease. I’m one of the 5% who has had it affect the eyes. And it will be corrected by surgery hopefully over the next period of time. We don’t know how long.

 

NDP digs up military's long-range Afghanistan planning

Dawn BlackThe NDP defence critic Dawn Black (left) has some crack researchers in her office who have learned,  through an Access to Information request, that Canada’s generals have been making plans for troops in Afghanistan through to 2011. Of course, the government has only approved keeping the troops there until 2009. The government has not yet made its plans known so far as keeping Canadian troops in Afghanistan beyond 2009.

The NDP says these are the main points of the documents obtained by Black:

  • It lays out troop and command rotation for Joint Task Force (JTF) Afghanistan.
  • It covers the period August 2007 until May 2011.
  • Our three largest regiments, the Edmonton-based Princess Patricia Canadian Light Infantry (PPCLI), Petawawa-based Royal Canadian Regiment (RCR) and the Royal 22nd Regiment (R22R or Van Doos) based in Val Cartier, Quebec will all be rotated TWO more times before this plan ends.
  • According to this document the PPCLI will be sent in May, 2008 and November 2009—on top of the two they have already served in Southern Afghanistan.
  • RCR, who just finished a rotation, will deploy again in August 2008 and February 2010
  • R22R, who just began its first rotation, will deploy again in February 2009 and August 2010.

Gordon O'ConnorHere’s the exchange on this subject from today’s Question Period between Black and Defence Minister Gordon O’Connor (right):

Ms. Dawn Black (New Westminster—Coquitlam, NDP) :
Mr. Speaker, the Minister of National Defence has refused the NDP request to set a time for debate and a vote on whether or not to extend the mission in Afghanistan beyond 2009. Documents I have obtained through access to information show that the Chief of the Defence Staff is already way ahead of the government. The CDS has detailed plans going until 2011 for deployments.

Will the minister tell the members of the Canadian Forces and their families what General Hillier has planned for them?

*   *   *

Hon. Gordon O'Connor (Minister of National Defence, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, I have answered this question a number of times. The member is confusing the military internal plan which is based upon the Afghanistan compact and government direction. If she reads the plan in detail, she will notice that the military acknowledge that they are committed to the end of February 2009, however, they plan beyond those dates because the Afghan compact goes until 2011.

*   *   *

Ms. Dawn Black (New Westminster—Coquitlam, NDP) :
Mr. Speaker, the government needs to come clean on this. Will the Royal Canadian Regiment be returned in February 2010? Will the PPCLI be returning in August 2009 for their third or fourth rotation? And will the Van Doos return for their third rotation in August 2010 as General Hillier's planning documents indicate?

It is hard to see where civilian oversight is taking place at DND. How can the military plan rotations that Parliament has not approved?

*   *   *

Hon. Gordon O'Connor (Minister of National Defence, CPC) :
Mr. Speaker, the government has said that we are committed to the end of February 2009. No further decision has been made. The government, when it finds it appropriate, will make the decision on what happens if and when the events occur after 2009.

And here’s an exchange in the foyer of the House of Commons between some reporterss and Black:

Reporter: What do you make of these documents and what do you think of the government’s responses that this is just prudent planning?

Black: Well, if that was the case, it if was just prudent planning, that would be one thing. However, you know, this is a government that has — a country that signed a commitment to the Kyoto agreements that run until 2015 and there’s no planning going on there. The point is that in Parliament we’ve only had 48 hours of debate about this mission in Afghanistan. If we are extending it or if there are plans to consider extending it, that debate should happen within the House of Commons in a substantive way so that Canadians and military families and the Canadian Forces themselves understand what’s being talked about and what the potential is.

Reporter: And do you think government has signed us on for two more years?

Black: I think that the plans are in place. I think that what we need to see is civilian oversight. It is a very serious issue that deserves to have the highest level of debate in Canada and you know when the government agreed to a further two years till 2009 there was a cursory kind of debate around the question — 48 hours, a very quick probe without any real in-depth discussion and I think that if the government is planning on going till 2011 that they should be consulting with Canadians and with Parliament on that.

Reporter: What do you make of the minister’s answers to your questions?

Black: I think in fairness we have to agree that the Conservatives at least had a short debate, 48 hours, before they extended to 2009. If the plans are afoot to extend it till 2011 that deserves to have a very thorough, high level informed debate within Parliament before a decision is made.

O’Connor, as he does almost every day, left the Commons via a members-only exit and, as a result, avoided reporters who may have wished to ask him about this.

 

Liberals aim at Finley for limo expenses

Earlier this month, Liberal MP Mike Savage unearthed the thousands of dollars Heritage Minister Bev Oda spent renting limousines while she attended the Juno Awards in Halifax. Today, the Liberals jumped on Immigration Minister Diane Finley for thousands she spent on limousines to attend what the Liberals say were essentially photo ops. Here’s the Liberal press release:

Today in Question Period the Liberal Opposition detailed expenses incurred by former Human Resources Minister Diane Finley while she was doing photo ops on child care, affordable housing and student jobs.

The following documents were obtained under Access to Information:

1) An expense claim for $2,222.56 billed by Minister Finley for July 16-17, 2006, for “UCCB [Universal Child Care Benefit] cheque presentation in Winnipeg.”

2) A $752.60 “Canada Limousine Inc.” invoice dated August 8, 2006, for service in July, marked “to be paid by Dept. UCCB Cheque presentation to and from airport.”

3) A $1,600.34 travel claim dated July 18, 2006, for Conservative staffer Colleen Cameron marked “presentation of a symbolic UCCB cheque to a family with children in Winnipeg.”

4) A limo bill of $861.35 for the Minister to attend a “Confederation Club Speakers Luncheon meeting” on April 20, 2006.

5) Three limo bills from September 2006:

– $862 to attend the Western Fair on September 8, 2006, noting expense to “wait 4 hrs.”
– $690 for the Vediroc Affordable Housing Announcement on September 7, 2006, as described on HRSD proactive disclosure website.
– $297.50 for travel from the Airport to the Toronto Royal York Hotel on September 6, 2006.

-30-

These documents is available at:

http://www.liberal.ca/pdf/docs/070219_uccb_cheque_presentation.pdf

Ralph Goodale on the politics of income trusts

Ralph GoodaleThis morning, after Question Period in the House of Commons, former Finance Minister Ralph Goodale (left) scrummed. The questions here come from several reporters:

Reporter: The Prime Minister won't apologize. He says you owe Canadians an apology.

Goodale: Well, both the Conservatives and the NDP have obviously been politically motivated for very partisan reasons right from the very beginning on this file. Their interest has not been the proper functioning of capital markets. It has been to smear and insult and destroy the reputations of other people and the public will judge that, I'm sure. They will be able to see through a Prime Minister that simply simply cannot admit that he went over the top on this issue as well as continuing to run paid political ads that contain now what is obvious to everyone as a blatant falsehood and surely the integrity of a Prime Minister would demand that when he knows he is not telling the truth, he should come clean.

Reporter: So what will you do about that?

Goodale: I haven't considered all of my options at this stage. Obviously that is a matter for further deliberations. I know that there is a process in relation to the advertising industry that can be pursued. What should happen though is just without further administrative or legal proceedings, the government should simply do the right thing.

Reporter: But is suing an option?

Goodale: I haven't really thought that through.

Reporter: How has this investigation affected you personally? 

Goodale: Well, it has been a very tough year. It has been a year of a lot of pressure and besmirching of reputation, a lot of insinuation and falsehood in a context where you really weren't at liberty to defend yourself. It is pretty tough, but you know, I realize that in political life, there is rough and tumble. The rules are not always fair, the behavior at least is not always fair, but I think by any decent independent standard, the abuse peaked in this instance went way beyond anything that anybody could consider as normal or reasonable.

Reporter: Did you lose sleep over it?

Goodale: Oh yes.

Reporter: Are you satisfied with the controls over the finance department to make sure that this sort of thing doesn’t happen again, that is, of course,  if the charges are, in fact, true?

Goodale: Well, I think your point about making it clear that these are at this stage allegations is a very important point. I will not comment in any detail upon the circumstances because quite frankly it is a matter that is now formally and officially before a court proceeding. The department of finance officials though that I have had the privilege to work with over the last couple of years are people of the highest order of integrity. They work very hard at doing their job and doing it properly. They take the responsibility seriously. The department will no doubt be examining their procedures in light of these circumstances, but I think any detailed comment as to exactly what may have transpired and exactly what ought to transpire in the future will have to wait another time when there are not specific court proceedings pending.

Reporter: Have you talked to Paul Martin about this?

Goodale: Mr. Martin and I have had a conversation in the last 24 hours, yes.

Reporter: What did he say?

Goodale: He obviously regrets the circumstances, both political and personal just as much as I do and he believes very strongly that setting aside the legal issues, he believes very strongly with me that both the NDP and the Conservatives and to a certain extent the Bloc engaged in personally abusive behavior here that should not, even in the toughest hurly-burly of political life, should not have a place in how our system functions. 

Reporter: Do you think you could have won that last election then, had it not been for income trusts?

Goodale: I think you probably have to ask people who are more in charge of the national campaign, but I think there is no doubt that it had a very profound influence. In my own riding, the influence was a backlash in my favor. The controversy at the end of the day actually helped to win us more votes, more workers, more signs, more volunteers, more money. So in a very back-handed kind of way, it actually made it easier to win because local voters really rallied to my cause, but at the national level, the impact was undoubtedly negative.

Reporter: The Prime Minister said today you should never have said there is nothing going on in your department, that is what you said publicly and you should never have said that.

Goodale: Right from the very beginning, I said that if there were any legal authority, any proper investigative body that thought this matter needed investigation, that they had the full power and authority to conduct that investigation whether that be the police or the security commission or whatever, they had all of that full independent authority and they should exercise that authority and that my department and me and my staff would cooperate 100% and that is exactly what happened and I made that commitment very early in this whole process. Thank you.

RCMP finger finance official in income trust investigation

The income trust investigation is over, the RCMP says. And the Mounties have nothing to say about any leaks. But they do say that a top Finance Department official — Serge Nadeau — used confidential information for his own personal financial gain. Nadeau, who was suspended without pay today from his position as director general of the tax policy branch within Finance Canada, is charged with criminal breach of trust.

Here’s the documents you’ll want to review:

The RCMP Press Release announcing the end of the investigation.

The NDP calls on former Liberal Finance Minister Ralph Goodale to apologize:

“The Liberals insisted nothing was amiss with Income Trusts, we now know that the RCMP have a different view,” said Judy Wasylycia-Leis, the NDP MP who filed the complaint with the RCMP that got the investigative ball rolling. “Mr. Goodale owes me and everyday Canadians an apology. He repeatedly claimed there was no reason for an investigation. He was wrong. He claimed that I and the NDP were motivated merely by politics. He was wrong. We were motivated by public interest, as the minister should have been. I am proud of the role I and my party played in this investigation.”

Goodale issues his press statement. (We’ll have more here from his scrum later)

 

Kyoto bill passes

Bill C-288, An Act to ensure Canada meets its global climate change obligations under the Kyoto Protocol, passed third reading in the House of Commons last night.

The vote was along party lines — with Conservatives voting nay and every other party voting yea. Prime Minister Harper was absent for the vote.

The chief paragraph from the act — “

5. (1) Within 60 days after this Act comes into force and not later than May 31 of every year thereafter until 2013, the [Government] shall prepare a Climate Change Plan . . .
The bill is now off to the Senate where it must go through three readings and then we will learn when the 60 day clock starts and whether or not the Government will pay any heed to the act.
Mark Warawa, the Conservative MP from Langley who is also the Parliamentary Secretary to to the Minister of the Environment, calls this a “mischief bill.”

Clean cars

This morning in Toronto, Ministers Lawrence Cannon and John Baird announced some financial support — contingent up on the budget passing this spring — for initiatives to get Canadians to buy more fuel-efficient cars. Here’s the CP copy:

TORONTO – The Conservative government says it will provide up to $36 million to help consumers choose more environmentally friendly vehicles.

Transport Minister Lawrence Cannon and Environment Minister John Baird made the announcement at the Toronto International Auto Show's media day.

The funds include $21 million for a new program to encourage consumers to invest in green vehicles by providing information on fuel consumption.

Up to $15 million will go toward buying, testing and showcasing fuel-efficient technologies.

But Canadian Auto Workers president Buzz Hargrove told the Toronto Star he'd like to see Ottawa offer consumer incentives that will replace polluting vehicles with new, efficient ones.

Meanwhile, Natural Resources Canada has launched a “Personal Vehicles Initiative”. There, you can see the federal government’s list of the most fuel-efficient vehicles for each model year that you can buy in Canada. The 2007 list is just out and they are:

  • – Two-seater car: Mazda MX-5;
  • – Subcompact car: Toyota Yaris;
  • – Compact car: Honda Civic Hybrid;
  • – Mid-size car: Toyota Prius;
  • – Full-size car: Hyundai Sonata;
  • – Station wagon: Honda Fit;
  • – Pickup truck: Ford Ranger and Mazda B2300 (co-winners);
  • – Special purpose vehicle: Ford Escape Hybrid;
  •  – Minivan: Toyota Sienna; and
  • – Large van: Chevrolet Express Cargo and GMC Savana Cargo (co-winners).
         

"Preparing to Capture Carbon"

Some notes and excerpts from “Preparing to Capture Carbon”, by Daniel P. Schrag in this week's edition of Science.

“Carbon sequestration from large sources of fossil fuel combustion, particularly coal, is an essential component of any serious plan to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-induced climate change. Scientific and economic challenges still exist, but none are serious enough to suggest that carbon capture and storage will not work at the scale required to offset trillions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions over the next century. The challenge is whether the technology will be ready when society decides that it is time to get going.”Carbon sequestration from large sources of fossil fuel combustion, particularly coal, is an essential component of any serious plan to avoid catastrophic impacts of human-induced climate change. Scientific and economic challenges still exist, but none are serious enough to suggest that carbon capture and storage will not work at the scale required to offset trillions of tons of carbon dioxide emissions over the next century. The challenge is whether the technology will be ready when society decides that it is time to get going.”
…unlike petroleum and natural gas, which are predicted to decline in total production well before the middle of the century, there is enough coal to last for centuries, at least at current rates of use, and that makes it cheap relative to almost every other source of energy. Today coal and petroleum each account for roughly 40 % of global CO2 emissions. But by the end of the century, coal could account for more than 80 %…
…So developing and deploying the technologies to use coal without releasing CO2 to the atmosphere may well be the most critical challenge we face, at least for the next 100 years, until the possibility of an affordable and completely nonfossil energy system can be realized.

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