Parliament's budget watchdog warns: We're not as rich as we think!

8521938440_85ea6a2021_z

Canada’s Parliamentary Parliamentary Budget Office is warning all political parties that while the federal treasury is about to overflow with billions in surpluses, any major tax cuts or new spending programs could plunge the country back into deficit.

But with political silly season upon us in advance of the 2015 general election, it’s unlikely the three major parties are going to pay much heed to this warning.

The PBO said Tuesday  [pdf] federal coffers will spill over with more than $53 billion in surpluses between now and the spring of 2020 but those riches are mostlyf from one-time benefits like the sale of government assets and an economy temporarily growing faster than expected. Continue reading Parliament's budget watchdog warns: We're not as rich as we think!

The funny thing about surpluses …

The deficit/Surplus chart from the February budget. Bay Street economists are radically re-drawing this.

Last week in Brampton, Ont., Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivered some good, if surprising news, about Canada’s fiscal situation. Here’s the transcript (my emphasis):

I want to draw your particular attention to the numbers, the one between the dotted lines there for last year, the year completed, 2013-2014. That has been our estimate until today. That has been our estimate of the deficit last year and coming up after that of course this year, 2014-15, we still have a small deficit and are projecting surpluses after that. Continue reading The funny thing about surpluses …

Poll: Should government cut the civil service? Are you prepared to do without?

Abacus Data went into the field to sound out Canadians about some of the choices the government is facing with this spring’s federal budget. Tonight on the Daily Brief, Abacus CEO David Coletto gave us the numbers on what he found. Turns out, Canadians want the government to fight the deficit. But we’re not unanimous about how to go about that. You can bet the government itself is in the field with focus groups and polls testing out their ideas on the same issue. Continue reading Poll: Should government cut the civil service? Are you prepared to do without?

Bad news for the deficit hawks: The storm clouds are parting

Some have observed that doom-and-gloom scenarios for our economy and the world economy provide the political cover for politicians to engage in initiatives, such as cutting public services, which might be politically unpopular.  Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s speech in Davos last week was a good example the kind of doom-and-gloom diagnosis for which the prescription is convincing enough Canadians they are no longer entitled to their entitlements. Continue reading Bad news for the deficit hawks: The storm clouds are parting