Some remarkable pollster consensus on eve of NDP leadership weekend

[Updated from first draft, based on some submissions in the comment section]

Recently, we’ve had a few polls come out and some show remarkable consensus.

On the ballot question:

• Today, Angus Reid finds Tories with an 8 point lead. CPC 37, NDP 29, LPC 21 (Survey done Mar 20-21)
• On Friday, Abacus released a poll showing the Tories with a 9 point lead. CPC 37, NDP 28, LPC 20 (Survey done Mar 9-13)
• On March 11, Ipsos Reid released a poll showing the Tories with an 8 point lead. CPC 37, NDP 29, LPC 23
• On  Leger Marketing released a poll showing the Tories with an 8 point lead CPC 34, NDP 26, LPC 24 (Survey Feb 28-Mar 5)

Now that said: A poll from Environics, as reported today in The Globe and Mail. It finds Tories and the NDP tied at 30 with the Liberals at 20. (Survey done March 6-18)

And EKOS, polling “likely voters” found only a slim lead by the Conservatives over the NDP. CPC 32, NDP 29, LPC 22 (survey done Feb 21-28)

Nanos, in its latest poll (survey done Jan 23-Feb 29) has the Tories at 36 %, similar to other pollsters. But Nanos finds the Liberals in second spot at 30% support and the NDP in third at 25%.

Angus Reid and Abacus, though, also found what could be a disturbing trend for the Tories: Declining “favourability” ratings for Prime Minister Stephen Harper:

• Angus Reid: “Since January, the leader who has lost the most ground on momentum is Harper, with the proportion of Canadians who say their views on him have worsened going from 30 per cent to 37 per cent.”
• Abacus: “The personal favourability ratings for Stephen Harper and Bob Rae got worse since January.  The percentage viewing Prime Minister Harper unfavourably increased by seven while Bob Rae’s unfavourable numbers increased by six.”
• Ipsos Reid found half (48%) of respondents “approve” of the job Harper is doing and that was unchanged since it asked the same question a month ago.

Similarly, there were common trends among some pollsters on the issue of “country going in the right direction”.

• Leger found 50% agreed with the statement “Canada is doing poorly and change is needed.”
• Abacus found that 46% say the country is on the “wrong track”. In August, Abacus found 49% said the country was on the “right track.”
• Ipsos Reid found 51% believe the country is headed in the right direction but that ratio was down from the election when 57% said the country was moving in the right direction.

Those last two questions — Right track/wrong track and leader ratings — are important, pollsters will tell you, because they are often leading indicators that the results for the ballot question result will likely change. In other words, particularly for a government, if a prime minister’s personal rating is dropping and more Canadians are saying the country is on the wrong track, there’s a good chance, the ballot question will tilt in the future against the governing party.