The Conservative Party of Canada has been around in its current form for nearly a decade and, in all that time, its one and only leader, Stephen Harper, has never awoken the morning after a day of elections with fewer seats in the House of Commons than he had the day before. Until today.
On Monday, in the federal riding of Labrador, the Conservative incumbent, Peter Penashue — who had resigned his seat and his position at Harper’s cabinet table in March because of serious allegations of multiple violations of election finance law when he won the seat in 2011 — lost to Liberal Yvonne Jones.
Here’s the final score:
- Liberal Yvonne Jones: 5,814 (48.2%)
- Conservative Peter Penashue: 3,922 (32.5%)
- NDP Harry Borlase: 2,273 (18.8%)
- Libertarian Norman Andrews: 50 (0.4%)
I don’t know one serious #nlpoli insider who didn’t have Jones winning this race out of the gate. Politics is very local here.
— David Cochrane (@CochraneCBCNL) May 14, 2013
Libs won back one of most historically Lib seats in Canada with excellent local candidate vs scandal mired incumbent. Mostly it.#nlpoli — David Cochrane (@CochraneCBCNL) May 14, 2013
I appreciate and respect this view but this by-election, like any by-election, does play into national narrative and we only have to look at the reaction of the sore loser in this fight – that would be the federal Conservative Party — for a hint into the broader context of the Labrador win. Here’s what Fred DeLorey, the Ottawa-based spokesman for the Conservatives issued to members of the Parliamentary Press gallery about 10 pm ET Monday night:
As we know, majority governments do not usually win by-elections. In fact, Liberals have won the riding of Labrador in every election in history except for two, so we are not surprised with these results. What is surprising is the collapse of the Liberal support during this by-election. When this by-election was called the Liberals had a 43-point lead in the polls. Since electing Justin Trudeau as leader and having him personally campaign there, they have dropped 20 points in Labrador. That’s a significant drop in only a few weeks. Labradorians were able to see firsthand how Justin Trudeau is in over his head.
We have never ever seen the Conservative Party of Canada lose but this is what it looks like. As Postmedia columnist Michael den Tandt described it: “graceless.”
CPC’s official response to loss in Labrador is astonishingly graceless. All pain, no gain. — Michael Den Tandt (@mdentandt) May 14, 2013
I cannot recall seeing any party issue issue a release in defeat that attacks the leader of the winning party.
In any event, for the Conservatives, the narrative of the Labrador by-election — however misguided it may be — is all about Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.
As for the Liberals, here is the post-victory release from Trudeau (with my emphasis):
“I am immensely proud of Yvonne Jones and want to offer her my heartfelt congratulations on this victory.
I was thrilled to campaign with Yvonne in Labrador, and am equally looking forward to the strong track record of proven leadership that she brings to both the Liberal caucus and to Parliament on behalf of her riding.
Today we have demonstrated that the Liberal message of hope and hard work is resonating, and that Canadians are tired of the Conservatives’ politics of cynicism, division and fear.
This is just the beginning. Together with Canadians we will build a thriving middle class and an even greater country.”
This, if you’ve been any attention at all to the Liberal leadership campaign and Trudeau”s first days on the job, is exactly what the Liberal narrative is all about. And, indeed, Labrador’s results play right into this. For just as this was the first time the Conservative leader woke up with fewer seats after a day of voting, no Liberal leader since Jean Chretien has ever woken up the day after any set of elections with more MPs than he had going to bed. You can bet Liberals will work in some variant of the “the comeback started in Labrador” into stump speeches.
As for the NDP, the party’s national director Nathan Rotman put a reasonable spin on it. Noting the party’s candidate did about as well Monday as it did when the Orange Wave was sweeping Quebec next door back in 2011, Rotman said, “Voters in Labrador who voted for Jack Layton in the last election, voted for Tom again this time and … certainly we’ll continue to look to build upon that.”
So, sure, this is “just a by-election”, the next general election is a long way away, and, as Toronto Star/Le Devoir columnist Chantal Hébert quite rightly notes, the steeper test for Trudeau will shortly come in the Montreal riding of Bourassa.
But still: Mark this Labrador by-election down. For the both the Liberals and the Conservatives, it was the kind of night neither have seen in a decade.
winners don’t cheat, cheaters don’t win
“I cannot recall seeing any party issue issue a release in defeat that attacks the leader of the winning party.”
Oh, please! Don’t tell me you’ve joined the ranks of the Press Gallery groupies who feel the need to protect poor sensitive Justin Trudeau from those evil Conservatives’ attacks.
If you want to talk attacks … everything that ever goes wrong in this country is usually ascribed to Stephen Harper personally. The above statement may be technically accurate, i.e. that after an election no negative comments have been made in the past against the winning party’s leader — I don’t know how I that could be verified — but I’m sure many a pundit is exclaiming “Aha! See? You Conservatives got your just deserts!”
Anyway, isn’t the classier !?! reaction of the Liberals “… the Conservatives’ politics of cynicism, division and fear.” equally an attack coming from Trudeau?
In my opinion Akin “finding” a story when one does not exist, given Labrador votes Liberal with rare- rare exception. Giving any credence to Trudeau influence is really a stretch!
I do agree however that the PC critique against Trudeau is wasted not “graceless” – makes me wonder why they don’t just let him be so as to assure themselves they have someone to split the left vote and concentrate on their being a good public policy government.
Yvonne James won in Labrador not Justin Trudeau. She not he is the known and respected political quantity there. Besides why would anybody care about the Liberals taking back a safe Atlantic Canadian seat much less look at it as a sign that Justin’s headed for 24 Sussex Drive?
The reality Trudeau needs to win in Ontario (minus the GTA, Ottawa or Windsor area) and western Canada to start turning heads. Maybe if he gets a win in a Quebec riding that is not Montreal then I’ll start to take notice. But unless this happens, he’s essentially a younger more famous version of Michael Ignatieff minus the skillful knowledge of public policy. You might as well hit the “May 2, 2011 reset button” at that.
“If you want to talk attacks … everything that ever goes wrong in this country is usually ascribed to Stephen Harper personally. ”
Gabby
If you re-brand the government from the Government of Canada to the Harper Government are you not personalising the whole system? He’s just reaping what he sowed. As for your “attacking the attack ads” statement, when you are being attacked you do tend to defend yourself.
This is a preview to what’s coming at the next election.
Can’t wait to get them conservative crooks out of office
“If you re-brand the government from the Government of Canada to the Harper Government are you not personalising the whole system? He’s just reaping what he sowed.”
Harebell, the Harper “re-branding” is just another “wafer” story. The reality is that the media customarily uses the name of the leader when referring to governments. When David Akin raised the same point back in 2010, I googled the name of various governments to see how many references used that form. Here are a few more current examples:
“McGuinty government”
— About 346,000 results (May 15/13)
With the word “the” preceding the name, about 340,000 results. Why the difference, I don’t know. Let’s see a few more examples.
“Trudeau government”
— About 4,980,000 results without “the”
— About 4,910,000 results with “the”
“Paul Martin government”
— About 182,000,000 results with or without “the”
“Chrétien government”
— About 2,410,000 results with “the”
— About 801,000 results without “the”
“Obama government”
— About 1,410,000,000 results with or without “the”
“Marois government”
— About 340,000 results with “the”
— About 351,000 results without “the”
And “le gouvernement Marois” yields about 636,000 results
“Harper government”
— About 96,900,000 results without “the”
— About 102,000,000 results with “the”
Among all those references, of course, there are blog posts etc. not just media references but the reality is that journalists themselves have been using that format for years.
Not convinced?
“the Thatcher government”: About 101,000,000 results
“the Truman government”: About 12,400,000 results
“the Mackenzie King government”: About 1,280,000 results.
“… when you are being attacked you do tend to defend yourself.”
What is Question Period if not a weekly attack ad against the Conservative government and its ministers? What is the daily output of most MSM articles and columns if not a barrage of attacks on the Conservative government or puff pieces about their new conquering hero?
As I’ve written elsewhere, I would have preferred the Conservatives keep the Trudeau ads for the period closer to the 2015 election. I would have saved the money and allowed Trudeau to keep putting his well-shod foot in his mouth. But since I’m not one of the Conservative strategists, no one thought about consulting little ol’ me & my opinion has little consequence.
“This is a preview to what’s coming at the next election.
Can’t wait to get them conservative crooks out of office”
Not really. Like I said Jim, a Liberal stronghold like Labrador is really a nothing-vote. This wasn’t Quebec City, Barrie, or Calgary that went Liberal, it was Liberal Labrador that returned to the Liberal fold. That the Conservatives even competed to the level that they did with a scandal plagued incumbent who was a Tory incumbent at that, in that riding to begin with STILL demonstrates the fact that the Grits are continuing to have problems “getting the puck out of their own zone” so to speak. Yvonne James could have taken that seat even if “Colin Thatcher” were leader of the federal Grits and were “pressing the flesh” for her in that riding. It really is not a sign at all.