My colleague Robert Fife reported yesterday that the same-sex marriage debate will be back on the table in early December. The Conservatives figured that might make the new Liberal leader’s first week on the job a little more fun. The Conservatives promised during the last election plan — and I’ve heard nothing to susggest there’s been any change — involves a two-step process.
First, the government will introduce a motion asking MPs if they wish to re-open the debate on same-sex marriage. The status quo, of course, would be that same-sex marriage in Canada is A-Ok. If a majority of MPs vote ‘No’ –that they do not wish to re-open the SSM debate — then that’s it. It won’t be back on the table in the current Parliament (unless a private members bill gets through but that seems a remote possibility).
If a majority of MPs vote to re-open the debate, then Justice Minister Vic Toews will be charged with drafting legislation that would reverse the Liberal bill, i.e. re-defining marriage to mean a union between two individuals of the opposite sex. If that bill is introduced, it would go — as all bills do — through three votes, at first, second, and third reading.
So: Does it ever get to a third reading? Not a chance. It won’t even get by that first stage. A majority of MPs — I am boldly predicting — will vote against the idea of even re-opening the debate. Why do I think this way? Both Bloc Quebecois and NDP MPs will be ‘whipped’ to vote against the idea. MPs will risk the wrath of their leaders if they vote to re-open the debate. So that’s as many as 79 votes against right off the bat. Not all Conservative MPs will vote to re-open the debate. Harper has promised a ‘free vote’ to every MP, including cabinet members, on this issue. My rough guess is that of the 124 Tory MPs in the House — a maxiumum of 110, and possibly fewer, vote to re-open the debate. So now, it’s 110 to 79 to re-open the debate. A majority is 154. So how do the 101 Liberal MPs in the House vote? Does a new Liberal leader whip them? Will it be a free vote for the Libs? If it is free vote, Liberals will vote either way but I see a maximum of about 30 Liberals voting with the Tories on this one.
So — final score on this one, if everyone shows up: Yays: 140. Nays: 168. End of SSM debate for this Parliament.