The mathematics of this minority Parliament

The election of the Speaker this week has some important implications for the calculus of this minority Parliament. In order to win a vote on any particular issue, the Conservatives will need some support from the Opposition parties. But where are the deals likely to be made? The short answer is — wherever Prime Minister Harper can find them.

The election returned the following number of MPs:

  • Conservative 125
  • Liberal 102
  • BQ 51
  • NDP 29
  • IND 1

That adds up to 308 MPs. But for voting purposes, the Speaker — who is Liberal Peter Milliken – will not vote. And that means, that there are 307 votes that could be cast on any given issue.

Therefore, any vote that wins 154 votes passes.

So how do you get to 154? These are the scenarios:

  • Every Conservative MP plus every Liberal equals 226 votes. Vote passes.
  • Every Conservative MP plus every Bloc Quebecois vote equals 176 votes. Vote passes.
  • Every Conservative MP plus every NDP MP equals 154 votes. Vote passes.

As a result, Harper must make a deal only with any one of the three Opposition parties. For the NDP, the election of a Liberal speaker gives them the power to sustain the government — presumably giving the NDP some leverage at the bargaining table — although the NDP alone with one other Opposition party cannot bring down the government.

For the Liberals, they can be slightly more aggressive in their voting, knowing that it will take all three parties and not just two parties to bring down the government.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *