The de facto deputy PM: Lawrence Cannon

There has been some speculation that Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon (left) might be moved in a cabinet shuffle Tuesday. He would be moved, the rumour mill suggests, for losing the UN Security council seat vote.

That won't happen.

Why? Three reasons off the top of my head:

First: Moving Cannon would be an admission that there was something Harper's government could have done to prevent losing that UN election. The government line all along has been that they had the oral or written support of more than enough countries to win the election. Some countries clearly didn't keep their word in the secret ballot. What was Cannon to do?

Second: Lawrence Cannon's political profile is on the rise in Quebec. My sources indicate that Cannon, who came to the federal Conservatives after a career as a provincial Liberal, is on the ascendant over that wing of the Quebec Conservative Party that aligns itself with the ADQ. Many of my Quebec Conservative friends give Cannon credit for engineering the surprise 2009 byelection victory Bernard Genereux in Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup — and for doing it while shunning the help of the ADQ forces in the area, now seen in some Conservative circles as not so helpful. (Mario Dumont's poor showing in the last provincial election in Quebec soured what had been a budding romance between the ADQ and the federal Conservatives). With Christian Paradis' recent trouble, do you really think Harper wants to upset the Quebec apple cart by being seen to demote a Quebec cabinet minister from what is arguably the third most powerful post in government?

Third: Every government must publish a list of who does what if a minister is incapacitated, unconscious, etc. Who do you think is the guy that becomes acting PM if Harper is unable to discharge his duties? That's right: Lawrence Cannon. He's been that guy since Harper formed his first cabinet in 2006 and was the guy on the most recent “Acting Ministers” list of Nov. 17, 2010. Though Harper has never formally named a “Deputy Prime Minister”, Cannon, by virtue of this list, is the de facto deputy PM. (Flaherty is number 15 on the list! And all you Peter MacKay-is-leaving-types: MacKay was 10th on Harper's first list like this. He's now 4th. I'm just sayin …)

Important caveat (just after midnight on shuffle day): All these bets are off if Cannon has informed the PM of his retirement. Then he could be moving …

Here, for those interested, is “Schedule A” from Order-in-Council 2010-1409, approved Nov. 17, 2010, which lists the pecking order, if you will, of ministers who will act for the PM in the event the PM is unable to discharge his duties:

1. The Honourable Lawrence Cannon, Vice-Chair, Priorities and Planning Committee and Chair, Afghanistan Committee
2. The Honourable John Baird, Chair, Operations Committee
3. The Honourable Diane Finley, Chair, Social Affairs Committee
4. The Honourable Peter Gordon MacKay,Chair, Foreign Affairs and Security Committee
5. The Honourable Stockwell Day, Chair, Treasury Board
6. The Honourable Christian Paradis,Chair, Environment and Energy Security Committee
7. The Honourable Tony Clement, Chair, Economic Growth and Long-term Prosperity Committee
8. The Honourable Robert Douglas Nicholson
9. The Honourable Jean-Pierre Blackburn
10. The Honourable Marjory LeBreton
11. The Honourable Chuck Strahl
12. The Honourable Vic Toews
13. The Honourable Rona Ambrose
14. The Honourable Beverley J. Oda
15. The Honourable James Michael Flaherty
16. The Honourable Josée Verner
17. The Honourable Peter Van Loan
18. The Honourable Gerry Ritz
19. The Honourable Jason Kenney
20. The Honourable James Moore
21. The Honourable Leona Aglukkaq
22. The Honourable Lisa Raitt
23. The Honourable Gail Shea
24. The Honourable Keith Ashfield
25. The Honourable John Duncan
26. The Honourable Gary Lunn
27. The Honourable Gordon O’Connor
28. The Honourable Diane Ablonczy
29. The Honourable Rob Merrifield
30. The Honourable Lynne Yelich
31. The Honourable Steven John Fletcher
32. The Honourable Gary Goodyear
33. The Honourable Denis Lebel
34. The Honourable Peter Kent
35. The Honourable Rob Moore