Merrill Lynch's David Wolf looks at recent consumer and business confidence surveys and says things don't look good:
Confidence measures have turned lower in both the US and in Canada. It was reported yesterday that US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in 15 years in June, with 6-month expectations at their worst since the mid-1960s [It was the fifth-lowest reading ever – Akin]. The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism fell to a 28-year low. Canadian figures have scarcely been better, in line with the Q1 decline in GDP. Consumer confidence here dropped 7 points in May to 85.8, the weakest since 2001. And today, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business released its latest survey of small companies, the “CFIB Business Barometer index”. The survey covers nearly 2000 business owners, and was conducted during the first two weeks of June. The results were weak ? in Q2, the index dropped to 100.7, down 3.3 points from Q1, to its weakest level since Q3 2001.