If there's one thing we've learned watching Prime Minister Stephen Harper over the last (almost) four years, it's that he refuses to lose control of the political agenda. Keeping that in mind, some of his advisors are pushing for the following:
1. When Liberal Senator Jerry Grafstein retires on Jan. 2 — the date of his 75th birthday — there will be five senate vacancies. Advisors say: Appoint 5 Conservatives. Result: Conservatives have a plurality – but not a majority – of Senate votes for the first time in a decade at least of 51-49 over the Liberals. Note: He may announce those Senate appointments as early as Friday.
2. Prorogue Parliament. Likely in mid- to late-January but could be anytime during the holiday break. Proroguing "resets" Parliament. And, according to Parliamentary procedure, committees in the Senate — where the Liberals now have majority control — and the House are disbanded. When they reconstitute, Conservatives will have the majority in the Senate. Despite Senate standings, Liberals will keep their majority on Senate committees — and the power to gum things up for the Tories — until a general election or, you guessed it, a prorogation. Note: Harper could prorogue anytime — but the key politically for him will be to tell Canadians that, though he's proroguing or suspending Parliament, he's calling MPs back, as scheduled, in late January.
3. Call Parliament back for Jan. 25 as planned and deliver a Speech to the Throne. For the Prime Minister, it's a historic throne speech. For the first time in a decade or so, the Liberals do not hold the hammer in the Senate. Harper will highlight this important inflection point in his Throne Speech for this Parliament's Third Session to talk about non-monetary things he'd like to do like reform the senate. Eight-year term limits could be just around the corner.
4. After tabling the Throne Speech, table a budget, likely in early February. Budget 2010 will be anti-climactic because all of the things the governmetn will do in Budget 2010 were announced in Budget 2009. There will be no surprises here. It's stay-the-course, recovery-is-fragile affair intended to show voters that gamesmanship is over for the Tories and prudent, competent management is in. We'll figure out how to slay the deficit in Budget 2011 or later.
5. Everyone go watch the Olympics. The Games begin Feb. 12 in Vancouver and run through Feb. 28. Harper will expect politicians, like most Canadians, to work while the Games are on and he will not prorogue or suspend Parliament while the Games are on. And here's a note from Harper to opposition politicians: If you want to go nuts on Afghan detainees, knock yourselves out — the Olympics will dominate newspaper, television, and radio coverage so you'll be yelling into a vacuum. The detainee issue, Conservatives believe, is absent from the MSM now and with the Olympics dominating coverage even with the House returning, it won't make a front page anywhere at least until March – if at all [UPDATE: Good chance Afghan detainee issue makes top spot in a lot of papers and newscasts tomorrow/tonight with this story.] And if it does, Harper can say he and his government did not avoid or run for Parliament on the issue.
That's about what I wrote about today:
OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper is being pushed by some of his own advisers to prorogue Parliament next month as the most effective way to win control over the Senate and, ultimately, push ahead with his government's agenda on climate change, justice, and Senate reform.
But the act of prorogation — the equivalent of hitting the reset button in Ottawa — would only be the first in a trio of moves as the Conservative government lays out a new policy agenda, one that is likely to be more ambitious because, for the first time since Brian Mulroney was prime minister, the Liberals will no longer have the majority of votes in the upper chamber.
MPs are not due to come back to Parliament until Jan. 25. One scenario under consideration by Harper's inner circle would be for the prime minister to prorogue Parliament a few days before that, have MPs return to Ottawa as planned on Jan. 25, and then quickly roll out a speech from the throne followed by the presentation of the 2010 federal budget — all before the Winter Olympics get underway in Vancouver on Feb. 12.
Still, if he does choose to prorogue, Harper would open up himself to some other potential political problems, primarily because prorogation has some similar effects to a general election: it would kill 40 pieces of government legislation — including the government's own tough new bills on consumer product safety and on harsher sentences for drug traffickers — and it would disband parliamentary committees.
Read the rest …
Tags: stephen harper, prorogue, budget 2010, throne speech, politics