Goodale's factors for "a rationale for change"

In the weekly newsletter to his Regina constituents, Liberal House Leader Ralph Goodale (left) talks about election timing and what he expects his leader Stéphane Dion is considering:

Three factors are coming together to create a compelling rationale for change.

First, there’s that disturbing pattern of unethical Conservative behaviour which reinforces a strong feeling that this government cannot be trusted.

Secondly, Mr. Harper’s short-sighted and ideological mismanagement of the economy has destroyed Canada’s fiscal security and is bringing the nation to the brink of an unacceptable deficit.

Third, Liberals are laying out a generous, ambitious vision for Canada’s future – all within the bounds of fiscal responsibility – providing powerful reasons to vote for a new government, and not just against the old one.

Winning the carbon war

Remember Stéphane Dion's early speeches on the environment shortly after he became Liberal leader? I'm paraphrasing but it went something like, if Canada can lead the way in figuring out how to cut megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions, Canada can make megatonnes of money.

So here's a report from CIBC Capital Markets economist Benny Tal [PDF] that talks about cutting greenhouse gas emissions and getting rich at the same time. Tal published this in December (I've recently had a chance to wade through the pile in my “must-read” box) and while some of the numbers have a change a little since then, the overall premise still works.

With no restrictions on emissions, companies have no economic motivation to apply such an option. Things, however, are changing. Soon, the right to emit will come with a price tag. And the surprise will be how little it will take to convince large emitters that injecting CO2 into the ground will make more economic sense than spreading it into the atmosphere…

In this context, due to its proximity to some of the world’s finest geological storage sites, Alberta’s oil patch is ideally located to
benefit from this emissions reduction option.
Instead of being the victim of environmental
regulations, the oil patch might emerge
victorious in the carbon war . . .

. . .Current estimates put the full-life cycle cost of pre-
combustion CCS at roughly $40 per tonne of CO2 —
notably cheaper than using the post-combustion
technology. But these cost estimates are being
revised downward almost daily, and the consensus is that
pre-combustion capture will be 25-30% cheaper within a
decade. In an environment of rising carbon prices, it may
not be long before the cost curve of capture and the cost
curve of emitting intersect. Accordingly, a price signal
of $20-25 per tonne of CO
can trigger a significant acceleration in the utilization of pre-combustion CCS [carbon capture and storage] as an economically feasible method of emissions reduction in
the oil sands. Incidentally, under the federal government’s
Green Plan, the price tag on carbon is scheduled to rise
to $20 per tonne of CO
by 2013.

Why we spent billion on those four C-17s ..

Until the Canadian Forces acquired its own fleet of Boeing C-17 Globemasters that were capable of flying our biggest loads — tanks, the DART, etc. — around the world, we used to have to a rent a ride to get our people and gear to where they needed to go. We paid the Americans, for example, $1-million one-way per tank to move a squadron of Canadian Leopards to Afghanistan. Most often, though, we'd rent from Russian private sector firms. We still do, in fact, even though we now have our own long-haul strategic airlift capability.

The Conservative government — mostly former defence minister Gordon O'Connor along with Edmonton-area MP and former fighter pilot Laurie Hawn — justified this multi-billion dollar acquisition our own strategic airlift because they said when our troops or gear need to get somewhere, we simply can't wait around to see if we can rent a ride. In their view, waiting around for a ride means we're simply not effective as a fighting force. I agree with that point except that no one in the CF — be it Chief of the Defence Staff General Hillier nor Chief of the Air Staff Angus Watt — has ever been able to provide me an example of our assets being left high-and-dry because we couldn't find a ride for them. In other words, the empirical evidence would seem to indicate that the CF was doing just fine, in terms of operational temp, with the concept of renting a ride and that perhaps the billions spent on strategic airlift might have been better spent on, say, new search-and-rescue aircraft, new helicopters, or any number of other things the CF needs.

But now comes the Belleville Intelligencer with perhaps the best reason for buying our own strategic airlift capability rather than renting from the Russians: Apparently, the Russians aren't exactly the safest aviators in the world. The Intelligencer's Luke Hendry, working off a great Access to Information request, describes the time, for example, Canadian personnel got a little nervous on one of these Russian flights when the Russian crew fired up the Hibachi in the cargo compartment — while in flight! And then there's this:

Messages written over the years by Canadian Forces staff tell of flights in which the foreign crews tied together containers of ammunition with those containing fuel oil; did not provide seatbelts for passengers; consumed alcohol in flight; and refused to de-ice their planes.

Tip 'o the toque for the Intelligencer's intelligence to Mr. C. Taylor …

A look back at April

An all-time record number of visitors dropped by this site in April, which is both gratifying and surprising. I've always said that I'd keep blogging even if no one was reading this because the stuff here is my digital dumping ground for notes, background, and observations that I often find useful to refer to somewhere down the road. The notebook metaphor is a good one except that this notebook is digital, available to me wherever there's a Web connection and searchable by keyword. (In covering the Conservative in government, for example, I've often looked back to the stuff I blogged when that party's grassroots held its first and only policy convention in 2005.)

With that, here's a review of the most popular posts, as measured by the number of times they were viewed, by the 120,569 unique visitors to this site in April, 2008. These are the top 20 with their original posting date is in brackets.

  1. Conservatives versus the Media: Part 132 (Sun 20 Apr 2008 09:10 PM EDT)
  2. Mercedes' SmartCar (Thu 20 Jan 2005 01:03 PM EST)
  3. Flanagan to Conservatives: Suck it up! (Mon 21 Apr 2008 09:44 PM EDT)
  4. Was Conservative ad scheme legal? “We are not certain beyond all reasonable doubt” (Sun 20 Apr 2008 10:31 PM EDT)
  5. “Who is Gordon Brown?” (Sat 13 Oct 2007 05:33 PM EDT)
  6. F-35 – Test Flight (Wed 10 Jan 2007 03:07 PM EST)
  7. The TSX media centre (Thu 01 Apr 2004 10:38 AM EST)
  8. The Liberals have a good day (Tue 01 Apr 2008 10:54 PM EDT)
  9. The RAF's C-17 Globemaster (Fri 11 Aug 2006 09:25 PM EDT)
  10. On to something new … (Fri 28 Mar 2008 03:33 PM EDT)
  11. The RCMP raids: Some inconvenient truths (Thu 17 Apr 2008 07:57 AM EDT)
  12. Welcome to Parliament, Rob Clarke! (Thu 03 Apr 2008 07:26 AM EDT)
  13. Meanwhile in Iraq, the Canadians dropped in … (Mon 21 Apr 2008 10:40 PM EDT)
  14. Humour: Nigerian e-mail scam vs. Conservative financing scandal (Mon 28 Apr 2008 10:57 PM EDT)
  15. Canadians mark ANZAC Day (Wed 23 Apr 2008 10:21 AM EDT)
  16. The New Air Canada uniforms (Mon 01 Nov 2004 10:47 PM EST)
  17. Canada's Two Economies? Maybe not… (Mon 28 Apr 2008 10:10 PM EDT)
  18. How much does the middle class make? (Mon 05 Dec 2005 07:58 PM EST)
  19. Dryden Vs Moore (Sat 19 Apr 2008 08:33 AM EDT)
  20. Garth on the RCMP raids (Tue Apr 18 2008 06:29 PM EDT)

Conservatives clean up with fundraising

Wow. The Conservative Party raised nearly $5-million in the first three months of 2008, more than twice as much as every other federal party combined.
Not only that, but the NDP raised more money than the once-mighty Liberals.
The Liberals managed to raise less than $850,000 in the quarter. Once again: The Tories raised $5-million.
Elections Canada released the data this afternoon.
Now, to be fair to the Libs, some Liberal leadership candidates from last year are still raising money to pay off their campaigns and that would likely have sapped some of the party's ability to fundraise during the quarter.
And then there's average size of donation. Historically, the Liberals have always had more generous donors, i.e. the average donation was higher. No longer. For the first time, both the Conservatives and the NDP have higher average donations than the Libs.
Here's the numbers for money raised Jan. 1 to March 31, 2008 (Number of donors/Avg donation in brackets):

  • Conservatives: $4,954,550.22 (44,345/$111.73)
  • NDP: $1,119,647 (13,329/$84)
  • Liberals: $846,129 (10,169/$83.21)
  • Green Party: $210,962 (4,731/$44.59)
  • Bloc Québecois: $37,006 (463/$79.93)