Federal budget on Feb 26

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced in the House of Commons during Question Period this afternoon that his third budget will be tabled in the House at 4 pm on Tuesday, February 26.

Now, it’s a remarkable thing for a minority government to table two budgets — but Flaherty will get to number three. I don’t think even the most optimistic Conservative back in early 2006 would have thought the Government was going to get this far. That might explain why the cupboard is pretty much bare for Flaherty right now. The Conservatives have rolled out all the big-ticket items and spent all the surplus (when I say “spent”, I really mean allocated, as in allocated billions to pay down the national debt) so there reallly isn’t a pile of money for Flaherty to announce a big sweeping go-to-the-polls type of plan.

“Well, there are some initiatives that we propose to have in the budget,” Flaherty told reporters who scrummed him after Question Period.  “But certainly this is our third budget and I'm going to talk about what we've accomplished cumulatively in just over two years with the two budgets which will be two budgets plus the two fall economic statements and the fact that Canada is in the best position really of the G-7 countries to go through what are more difficult economic times.  That's certainly what I heard this weekend in Tokyo from my colleagues in the G-7.  There's some envy of the fact that we have such strong economic fundamentals in Canada.”

The numbers in the House being what they are, the Government needs one and only one Opposition party to support it . All three Opposition parties have to vote against the budget and that would trigger a federal election in April. Flaherty was asked if there will be something in his budget that at least one of the other parties can support.

“It's a good question,” he said. “I've had meetings last week with the three critics.  I must say that the meetings were not terribly productive.  Although there were some ideas put forward that I think are ideas that would help in terms of communities and individuals who are suffering because of industrial slowdown in those particular communities.  So there may be some room for some discussions.  I'm certainly going to go back and have some further discussions.”

My colleague Steven Chase reports in the Globe and Mail this morning that the surplus might be a teensy bit bigger than expected — but not by a whole lot.

 

Raytheon joins GDCanada's bid for Cdn Navy contract

General Dynamics Canada announced today that it has added weapons systems maker Raytheon Canada to its team that is aiming to land the $1.1–billion Department of National Defence contract to modernize the combat systems on board the  Canadian Navy’s Halifax Class frigates.

GDCanada is the prime contractor for the bid while Raytheon joins Thales Netherlands, Thales Canada and General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems on the project.

Canada’s twelve HALIFAX-class frigates, which were commissioned between 1992 and 1996, are now at mid-life and require an upgrade to respond to today’s different kind of naval threats.

Two other teams are also trying to win this contract.

Lockheed Martin leads a team that includes IBM Canada, SAAB, and CAE Professional Services. Lockheed’s late add to its team was L3 Electronics System Canada.

Macdonald Dettwiler of Vancouver, B.C. is the third prime contractor hoping to land the deal.

All three teams are right now busy putting their proposals together. The federal government is expected to award the contract late this year.

 

ATI Follies

I’m going to start posting up what, sadly, will likely be examples of how Canada’s Access to Information system is grinding slowly but seemingly inexorably to a halt. This is something that all Canadians should be concerned about, not just pesky reporters. In fact, reviewing the 1,800 ATI requests filed to all federal government departments in October of last year (the most recent month for which such data is available) just 184 requests were made by media representatives. The rest came from individuals, businesses, and academics. A broken ATI system is a big problem for a democratic society.

DFAIT now charging for preparation times

One of the routine requests I make each month is for the “House Cards” prepared for the Ministers I cover. For my latest request, the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade now says I’ll have to pay $838 for preparation time for three months worth of Minister Bernier’s house cards and $204 for preparation of Minister Emerson’s House Cards. DFAIT (and every other department I’ve ever requested House Cards from) has provided these House cards in the past without assessing fees for preparation. Departments can ding you for ‘search’ time if it’s going to take a while to find what you ask for, but in this case, they have found the records but say that there’s just so many, they’ve now decided to charge for it. They’re doing this, the ATIP officer handling the file says, because they’re so swamped with requests. Not sure why you, me and individual requesters are supposed to being paying because successive federal governments have failed to provide ATIP offices without the proper funds to hire staff. And note: The ATIP system is specifically NOT run on a cost-recovery basis. The Act says ATIP offices may impose fees on certain kinds of requests. If you ask me, these new ‘prep’ fees from DFAIT are nothing more than barriers and obstacles to providing information. 

Still waiting on PCO and DFAIT

On December 1, 2006, I asked Transport Canada for a list of documents submitted by the Department to the Minister. Today — February 11, 2008 — I received a partial list. It’s six pages long and taken more than a year to produce this thing. But it’s still not complete because Transport Canada is still waiting for the results of consultations it was required to do with the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and with the Privy Council Office. When they hear back from DFAIT and PCO, I may get the rest of this information — or not.

Canada, NATO, and defence spending

A few weeks ago, NATO released its annual scorecard (PDF) on defence spending by member countries as of 2007. It’s taken me a while to find the time to crunch some of the numbers but here are some things that stand out:

  • As of 2007, Canada’s total spending on defence was, in current U.S. dollars,  $18.5–billion, good enough for sixth highest among NATO’s 26 members. Italy was number five ahead of Canada, spending more than twice as much as us. Spain ($17.3B), Turkey ($13.4B), and the Netherlands ($11.1B) were right behind Canada. The U.S. was tops, of course, spending more than $545–billion on defence, followed by the U.K., France, and Germany. Canada has been number 6 in NATO for a while, although in 2003, Spain and Canada flipflopped positions.
  • NATO member countries spent a collective US$854–billion on defence in 2007 and Canada accounted for 2.16 per cent of that, the highest ratio in over a decade. In 2006, Canada accounted for just 1.87 per cent of all defence spending by NATO members.
  • Who showed the biggest year-to-year increases in defence spending? Why, that would be Estonia, whose defence budget shot up by nearly 45 per cent between 2006 and 2007. Canada had the eighth biggest increase in defence spending, up by $3.45–billion year-to-year or about 23 per cent. The U.K., U.S., and Denmark showed the smallest increases in defence spending among NATO members at 6.2 per cent, 3.35 per cent, and 2.62 per cent respectively. The NATO average was 15.82 per cent.
  • Conservatives like to say they’ve restored funding to the DND but, in fact, all they’ve really done is continue a trend got started by previous Liberal governments in 2000. According to NATO’s data,  Canadian defence spending increased 2.7% in 2001 compared to 2000; 0.1% in 2002 , 18.4% in 2003;  13.8% in 2004; and 14.9% in 2005. The Conservatives passed their first budget in 2006 (there is some slight overlap here as NATO’s numbers are the calendar year and budgets are for fiscal years that end on March 31) and defence spending rose in 2006 13.9% over the 2005 and then jumped again 22.9% last year.
  • Looking at the average change in defence spending for the three years ending in 2007, Canada actually fares better, moving up to number 6 on the list with an average increase of 20.3 per cent or $2.3–billion every year since 2004–05. Latvia remained on top with an average increase of 51.5 per cent increase in defence spending. In fact, it is all former Soviet Bloc countries ahead of Canada in this ranking (not sure what that tells you). After Latvia, it’s Romania (averaging 32.4% per year increase), Estonia (28.8%), Slovak Republic (24.6%), and Poland (23.2%). The bottom three on this list are Germany (3.4%), Italy (3.3%), and Hungary (-0.5%). The NATO average in this category was 10.6 per cent so Canada, over this period — a period of both Liberal and Conservative governments — double the NATO average for increases in defence spending.
  • But despite those spending increases, Canada still ranks tied for 6th lowest spending on defence when defence spending is expressed as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product or GDP. In 2007, Canada spent 1.3 per cent of GDP on defence, compared to the NATO average of 1.8 per cent. Since as far back as 2000, Canadian spending on defence had remained relatively constant at 1.2 per cent of GDP but, in 2007, moved up a touch to 1.3 per cent. Here’s a selected list:
    • 1. U.S. (4%)
    • 2. Greece (2.8 %)
    • 3. Turkey (2.7 %)
    • 4. France (2.4 %)
    • 5. Bulgaria, The United Kingdom (2.3 %)
    • 7. Poland, Romania (1.9 %)
    • 9. Italy (1.8 %)
    • 10. Latvia, Slovak Republic (1.7%)
    • —-
    • 18. Canada, Denmark, Germany (1.3%)
    • 21. Lithuania, Spain (1.2 %)
    • 23. Belgium, Hungary (1.1 %)
    • 25. Luxembourg (0.7 %)

Does Canada figure in NATO's future? Yes. Three times.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies is relatively well-respected Washington-based think tank. A couple of weeks ago, it released a study that takes a look at the future of NATO. It was titled Towards a Grand Strategy for an Uncertain World: Renewing Transatlantic Partnership (PDF) and it was jointly written by some heavy hitters: the former chiefs of the defence staffs in the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., and the Netherlands. It is 152 pages long. Canada is mentioned all of three times.

You’re probably interested in what way these five-star military men believe Canada will help renew this transatlantic partnership so let me quote the sections where Canada is mentioned in this 152–page report:

If global warming were to allow this to become a viable source of energy, a serious conflict could emerge between Russia and Norway, because the delineation of the continental shelf is still disputed. Such a potential crisis will involve a much larger area of the Arctic Circle, and will see the USA, Russia, Canada and Denmark competing for large and viable energy sources and precious raw materials. (p. 35)

Similarly, what does it mean for shipping and trade with Asia if climate
change allows the northern shore of Canada to be open to shipping all year round? What future military and naval requirements will be needed to protect such new and highly lucrative lines of maritime communication? What will the impact be on American–Canadian relations? (p. 35.) (The reader will be disappointed to learn that these are, alas, rhetorical questions and, though they seem to me to be important issues, they are not really addressed by the authors.)

For the USA to play its role as effectively as possible, the
transatlantic bargain between the European countries, Canada
and their American ally must be renewed. All of America’s
European allies acknowledge that their relationship with the
USA is indispensable. But in order to convince the US to
enter into a renewed bargain, Europe needs, in return, to become
a truly indispensable partner to the US. (p. 119)

Er. That’s it.

 

 

 

My thoughts about "The Changing Landscape of Canadian Media"

The folks at Canada Newswire have asked me to make a presentation that looks at how communications and public relations professionals can mesh with today’s newsrooms, where writers, editors, reporters, and producers have more deadlines and there is a greater emphasis on delivering content across multiple platforms (to use the jargon of the day). If you’d like to attend, it’s a breakfast event at the National Arts Centre in Ottawa on February 21 and — lo and behold — the event will apparently be Webcast, if you can’t be here in Ottawa in person.

I’m still figuring out what to say but it will definitely be “news you can use” if you’re in the business of trying to get the attention of us media types. No theory allowed: Just practical tips, tricks, and advice.

Click here for details on the event (the title of the talk sounds a bit grander than what I plan to actually deliver) and instructions on registering. Hope to see you there!

At International Trade, paperwork makes the world go around

Every federal minister has a group of bureaucrats that work to produce and co-ordinate the paperwork that the Minister must deal with and the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade is no different. When David Emerson was sworn in as Minister of International Trade, he was given the lowdown on his “Briefing and Correspondence Services” unit, what they do, and how he’s supposed to help. This info comes via an Access-To-Information request and was current at the beginning of 2006:

  • About 37 briefing books are prepared by the Department each year for the Minister. Each briefing book requires 22 business days’ notice from the Minister’s Office. Minister Emerson has the reputation, incidentally, as a policy wonk who likes nothing better than settling into his seat for those four-hour flights home with a pile of briefing books and notes.
  • The bureaucrats at International Trade prepare about 1,000 meeting notes, information memos and decision memos each year for the Minister — known around DFAIT headquarters as MINT. (The Foreign Affairs Minister is referred to in departmental internal correspondence as MINA). Any meeting note requires 6 business days notice from the Minister’s Office.
  • In 2005, the Minister received over 7,000 letter, including 1,000 invitations. The Department answers all correspondence, including e-mail, that is addressed to the Minister.

 

I'm on a panel: Reporting on Parliament Hill

Later this month, I and two of my esteemed Parliamentary Press Gallery colleagues, will be participating on a panel discussion here in Ottawa. Here’s the blurb from the panel organizers:

News gathering on Parliament Hill has undergone a revolution over the last decade. The explosion of the internet and wireless communications means that news and commentary now moves instantly. The establishment of 24 hour dedicated news channels has both shortened the “news cycle”, and reduced the ability of governments and corporations to “bury” bad news. Like everything else in our world, reporting on Parliament Hill is now a blur of non-stop activity.
What is it like to be a member of the Parliamentary Press Gallery in this new era? How have the rules changed? CTV’s David Akin, Kady O’Malley of Maclean’s and Manon Cornellier of Le Devoir are three prominent Press Gallery members who are right in the thick of the action every day. They cover the Hill from all angles – French and English, print, television and new media. David is a Gemini Award winning reporter who started covering business and has now moved to the world of politics. He can be seen most every night on CTV National News reporting from the Hill. Kady is a former Hill Times reporter who now works for Maclean’s, writing in both the magazine and in her popular, “Inside the Queensway” blog. Manon has been covering federal politics since 1985 in both print and electronic media, and recently won a Judith-Jasmin Journalism Award for her work.
David, Kady and Manon will speak about the challenges of their jobs, take on the issue of “media bias”, talk about the personalities and dynamics of the current minority Parliament, and engage in some prognostication about the year ahead in Canadian politics. Of course, the floor will be wide open for your questions as well.

Here’s the form you can download and fill out, if you’re interested in attending: Feb_25_Notice.pdf (143 KB)

The Afghanistan motion: "There are things to talk about here", says Ignatieff

As Liberal leader Stephane Dion is travelling today and was in Vancouver when the Government House Leader Peter Van Loan tabled the motion on Afghanistan that MPs will vote on at the end of next month, it was left to Liberal deputy leader Michael Ignatieff (left) to say a few words about his party’s reaction to the motion. Here he is, speaking to reporters in a scrum, after Question Period today:

Ignatieff: The Liberal position on Afghanistan has been clear for over a year.  We want to continue with a development, security and military role in Afghanistan.  But we think the mission has to change.  And we're going to come forward early next week — now that we've got the motio — we're going to come forward early next week with a very detailed, very comprehensive set of amendments to the motion. 

Let me react to the government's motion because you will notice that it mentions February 2011.  The question all Canadians have to ask is: Is that a withdrawal date or a renewal date?  Legitimate question.  We don't know the answer.  There's ambiguity there and Canadians need to have a clear answer to that question. 

We also notice that there's a great deal, if it's based on Manley, there's a great deal in the Manley Report criticizing the management of the mission, criticizing the way development it's done.  That’s not in the motion and we think that we're going to put amendments in that area. 

And finally:  Look, this is a national question, okay?  This is the most important thing Canada's done in 50 years.  We are anxious to work with the government to find a respectable, honourable compromise that serves the national interest.  But you can't go into the House of Commons and be told you're the Taliban information service and [because] that doesn't exactly create the atmosphere for a proper dialogue. 

The final point I'd make in terms of how we're doing it as a party, Mr. Dion has made it very clear, we don't want to do secret negotiations behind closed doors.  There's too much secrecy already in the way the government's handling this mission.  So we have not responded to their motion earlier.  We've decided the right thing to do is to put it out in the public and have the public look at what we're saying and I think the public will be surprised and I'll bet you, the government's going to be surprised. 

Reporter: Quelle sort d'amendements allez-vous proposé?

Ignatieff:   Vous allez voir.  Nous aurons, nous allons nous donner, et je dois noter aussi, nous devons consulter avec le caucus, je pense lundi.  J'envisage après une discussion au sein du caucus, il faut noter bien, M. Harper consulte personne dans son parti.  Nous, au contraire, nous devons consulter tout le parti.  Après cette consultation qui, qui va, qui va se poursuivre lundi, je crois, lundi soir ou mardi matin, vous allez voir une motion très détaillée, très concrète, très précise sur l'avenir que nous proposons pour les citoyens sur la mission en Afghanistan. 

Reporter:  Is it on this reduced combat role, an end date of some kind?  Is that where you see the need for compromise?

Ignatieff:   The caucus has to consult, but it's clear that were the government seriously interested in stopping all this posturing and puffering and labelling us Taliban sympathizers, were they seriously interested in serving the national interest, there are things that we can talk about.  I do not want to prejudge the discussion we'll have in caucus.  But it is my view that there are things to talk about here.  Canadians I think have said this for weeks.  They don't want an election on Afghanistan.  We don't either because I feel, as a patriotic Canadian, very uneasy about going to the country while we've got troops in the field.  And I implore the government to reflect and understand that.  I've heard some Ministers on the other side say that.  I urge us to work that way.

But don't mishear what I'm saying.  I am not overly optimistic that we are going to get a reasonable bipartisan approach here because they're so unbelievably partisan.  Therefore, we'll just have to see how they react to what we, I think, are going to propose. I think they'll be surprised. 

Reporter:  If there's an election while the (NATO Heads of State) Bucharest meeting comes around and this issue hasn't been resolved, does [the Canadian  government] have a mandate to do anything under those circumstances?

Ignatieff: Well, that's an excellent question, and Canadians ought to reflect on the management of this that leads us into the very likely prospect of an election while all our NATO allies are sitting there in Bucharest saying what's the position of Canada?  Ask the Prime Minister to explain how he's manoeuvred and levered us into a situation which it is possible — I don't hope this, I wish it weren't the case, but it is possible —  that we'll be in Bucharest without a Canadian government.  And who's responsible for that?  Stephen Harper. 

Reporter:  When you were in Afghanistan, you spoke glowingly about the police training and the army training that was going on there.  Do you think that this is an area where compromise might be possible, bringing the two parties closer together? 

Ignatieff:  We've been saying for more than a year that I was very impressed with what I saw of the police and army training.  Any Canadian looking at that up close is proud of what we're trying to do.  We probably are as good at that as anybody in the world, and there may be areas there— you put your finger on the right issue — where there's stuff to discuss.  But again, we don't negotiate through the press.  I mean, I love talking to the press but we can't negotiate this through the press.  The caucus has to be consulted and then it seems to me if, if we're going to take this further, the leader of my party and the Prime Minister have to sit down and look at the distance that remains between our positions and decide really is it in the national interest for us to plunge the country into a bitter election on an issue where Canadians I think desperately, right across the partisan divide, want us to pull together and do our jobs as politicians. 

 

Therefore, we should stay in Afghanistan

The Conservative government just tabled the motion that the House of Commons will debate and eventually vote on about the Afghanistan mission. The vote on this motion is expected to occur some time towards the end of March, just ahead of the NATO heads of government meeting in Romania in early April. It has been declared a confidence motion, which means that if it fails to pass, the Government will ask the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call a general election. It will be the last of at least three confidence votes, upon which the government could fall, between now and the end of March. Here’s the motion:

Government Motion – Seeking to Continue the Mission in Afghanistan

That,

whereas the House recognizes the important contribution and sacrifice of Canadian Forces and Canadian civilian personnel as part of the UN mandated, NATO-led mission deployed in Afghanistan at the request of the democratically elected government of Afghanistan;

 whereas, as set out in the Speech from the Throne, the House does not believe that Canada should simply abandon the people of Afghanistan after February 2009;  that Canada should build on its accomplishments and shift to accelerate the training of the Afghan army and police so that the government of Afghanistan can defend its own sovereignty and ensure that progress in Afghanistan is not lost and that our international commitments and reputation are upheld;

 whereas in February 2002, the government took a decision to deploy 850 troops to Kandahar, the Canadian Forces have served in various capacities and locations in Afghanistan since that time and, on May 17, 2006, the House adopted a motion to support a two year extension of Canada's deployment in Afghanistan;

 whereas the House welcomes the Report of the Independent Panel on Canada's Future Role in Afghanistan, chaired by John Manley, and recognises the important contribution they have made;

 whereas their Report establishes clearly that security is an essential condition of good governance and lasting development and that, for best effect, all three components of a comprehensive strategy – military, diplomatic and development – need to reinforce each other;

 whereas the government accepts the analysis and recommendations of the Panel and is committed to taking action, including revamping Canada's reconstruction and development efforts to give priority to direct, bilateral project assistance that addresses the immediate, practical needs of the Afghan people, especially in Kandahar province, as well as effective multi-year aid commitments with concrete objectives and assessments, and, further, to assert strong Canadian leadership to promote better coordination of the overall effort in Afghanistan by the international community, and, Afghan authorities;
  
whereas the results of progress in Afghanistan, including Canada's military deployment, will be reviewed in 2011 (by which time the Afghanistan Compact will have concluded) and, in advance, the government will provide to the House an assessment and evaluation of progress, drawing on and consistent with the Panel's recommendations regarding performance standards, results, benchmarks and timelines; and

 whereas the ultimate aim of Canadian policy is to leave Afghanistan to Afghans, in a country that is better governed, more peaceful and more secure;

Therefore, the House supports the continuation of Canada's current responsibility for security in Kandahar beyond February 2009, to the end of 2011, in a manner fully consistent with the UN mandate on Afghanistan, but with increasing emphasis on training the Afghan National Security Forces expeditiously to take increasing responsibility for security in Kandahar and Afghanistan as a whole so that, as the Afghan National Security Forces gain capability, Canada's combat role should be commensurately reduced, on condition that:

(a) Canada secure a partner that will provide a battle group of approximately 1000 to arrive and be operational no later than February 2009, to expand International Security Assistance Force's security coverage in Kandahar;

(b) to better ensure the safety and effectiveness of the Canadian contingent, the government secure medium helicopter lift capacity and high performance Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance before February 2009.