Sherry Cooper (left) is a transplanted American who now works in the heart of Bay Street as the chief economist for BMO Nesbitt Burns. She has a note this morning about Barack Obama’s victory in the Iowa caucuses last night. Cooper believes that if November’s run-off is Obama vs. Huckabee, Obama wins. In this excerpt, she takes a brief look at Obama’s trade and economic policy:
In a remarkable turn of events, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois pulled off a rousing victory at the Iowa caucuses last night, leaving John Edwards, and most surprisingly, Hillary Clinton in the dust. … In the modern era, we have seen only two such decisive events, the 1932 election of Franklin D. Roosevelt and the 1980 election of Ronald Reagan, both of which ushered in an era of dominance for their respective political parties. While these are very early days, and a big mistake in the near future could derail Obama’s campaign, the record Democratic turnout and the dominance of Obama in the Independent vote might portend a real sea change in American politics.
… So what does this mean for U.S. economic policy? … Obama’s economic platform is basically pro-middle class, anti-tax benefits-for-the-rich and big on government spending for social programs. He is pro-jobs and proposes to renegotiate NAFTA: Obama believes that NAFTA and its potential were “oversold to the American people. Obama will work with the leaders of Canada and Mexico to fix NAFTA so that it works for American workers,” according to his website. The Senator is an economic populist with a 21st Century bent towards protecting the openness of the Internet, deploying next-generation broadband and boosting renewable energy. While he has consistently opposed the war in Iraq, he proposes a phased withdrawal with a remaining peace-keeping contingent. He is pro-labour and pro-family, but decidedly not anti-business, as his overflowing coffers and considerable business support attests.
Obama's current economic advisors are Austan Goolsbee of the University of Chicago and Jeffrey Liebman of Harvard University. Goolsbee has been an advisor to Obama since his Senate campaign and is the lead economic advisor to his presidential campaign. He is a known centrist and his research focuses on the Internet, the new economy, government policy and taxes. Liebman is an economics professor at the JFK School of Government and is also a Research Associate at the NBER, the official judge of American economic cycles. Liebman’s research includes tax and budget policy, social insurance, poverty, and income inequality. Recently he has examined the impacts of government programs such as Social Security, the Earned Income Tax Credit and housing vouchers. From 1998 to 1999, he worked for the Clinton Administration, serving as Special Assistant to the President for economic policy and coordinated Bill Clinton’s Social Security reform technical working group.
In a recent speech, Obama called for “a renewed trust in the market and a renewed spirit of obligation and cooperation between business and workers… employees at companies like Google don't mind the vast success of their CEOs – because they share in that success.”
… Any President’s power over economic policy is controlled and limited by the Congress and the Federal Reserve. A Democratic sweep of both Houses of Congress would strengthen any Democratic President’s hand. November 4, 2008 is still a long way away and the race will no doubt remain exciting until after the votes have been tallied.