Month: February 2006

The New York Times’ Saul Hansell reports today that both AOL and Yahoo — the two biggest providers of e-mail services on the planet — are considerig a plan to start charging companies who want to send out bulk e-mail a fee. Hansell says it could cost between 0.25 cents and a penny for those kinds of messages. But here’s the catch: Individual e-mail account holders could end up having to pay also if they respond to certain kinds of commercial e-mail.

On Friday, I tried to think through who will be in Stephen Harper’s cabinet when he unveils it on Monday. In that post, I noted that no one knows for sure but, in interviews with Conservative MPs, Conservative political staffers, Conservative strategists and other pundits and observers in Ottawa, it’s possible to come up with some educated guesses.

I got a lot of reaction and corrective analysis to that first run-through of the cabinet and so, here’s some additional thoughts and modifications to that first list (likely a good idea to read that first post before coming to this one):

Big picture:

• Harper's cabinet would have 23/24 members including Harper and the Senate Leader.
• It would have 8 MPs from Ontario, 5 MPs from Alberta (incl. Harper); 3 or 4 from Quebec, 3 from Atlantic Canada, 2 from B.C., 2 from Saskatchewan, and 1 from Manitoba.
• It would have five women.
• Lawrence Cannon (Pontiac) is deputy prime minister.

The details-

• Stockwell Day is not going to be in cabinet. Harper is going with merit over loyalty or friendship. On merit, Day is out (think Niagara Falls). I think Harper may recognize that Day has matured a great deal since his days as a party leader and while he won’t get a big slot like Foreign Affairs, he’d do OK looking after the Canada Revenue Agency. Plus, if he’s not in, B.C. likely only has Jay Hill and James Moore at the cabinet table. I suppose Harper could Betty Hinton into cabinet instead of Stock to give B.C. three cabinet seats. In any event, no one’s yet explained how Harper would get away with just two cabinet representatives from B.C. when Alberta could have more than twice that many.
• Monte Solberg is not going to be in cabinet, some of my sources say. If Solberg is not in the cabinet, it might be because of a performance that was described as “dreadful” by some when his party unveiled the cost of its election platform. A source who will be part of the PMO says Solberg’s performance at that event was “an eyeopener” to Harper and s/he didn’t mean that in a good way. I tend to think that Solberg’s overall competence and political smarts trump that particular campaign hiccup and that Harper will put Solberg in the cabinet. None of the sources I spoke to have him in Finance. Those that do have him in have him in Foreign Affairs. I still like him for Public Works but there are those within his party who believe Harper may overlook for him Cabinet.  “This is the battle formation,” a senior Conservative source said, noting that Monday’s cabinet will be filled with the people who will take the Tories to the next election and who must deliver on the five priorities.
• There is a growing consensus Rob Nicholson will get Finance.
• I picked Senator Hugh Segal (Ontario) as the Government Leader in the Senate but I would not be surprised if Senator Marjory LeBreton (Ontario) took that job. Late this week, I had a Conservative staffer make a convincing argument that Sen. Noel Kinsella (New Brunswick) will keep his job as the top Conservative in the Senate — and be the political minister for New Brunswick rather than Greg Thompson.
• Saskatchewan will have one minister for sure and possibly two. They will be, in this order, Carol Skelton and Gerry Ritz. I had originally picked Skelton but I thought that if there would be two from Saskatchewan, Lynne Yelich would be number two.
• Jason Kenney gets in cabinet as House Leader say several sources. So does Jay Hill — Hill was Opposition House Leader in the last Parliament — but look for him to be tapped for something like Natural Resources. I’m of two minds here. I think the other house leaders — Michel Gauthier of the Bloc Quebecois and Libby Davies of the NDP — get along well with Hill (or at least better than they might be with Kenney) and, because of that, there would be a basis for productive negotiations. On the other hand, I think Harper believes Kenney is more of a master of the ins and outs of House protocol which may be more important for the government as it tries to get the Conservative platform adopted in a minority Parliament. If Kenney is not House Leader, he will not be in cabinet but would likely be the Whip.
• Steven Fletcher, who represents a Winnipeg area riding and was health critic in the last Parliament, does not make the cabinet. Harper may see him as having potential but still too young and inexperienced.  If that’s true, Manitoba would have only one individual at the cabinet table — Vic Toews.
• Gordon O'Connor will not be in cabinet but his riding neighbour Scott Reid will be and will be given the “Democratic Renewal” portfolio.
• Diane Finley, the wife of winning war room director Doug Finley, and Bev Oda will be in from Ontario. Oda gets Heritage. Don't know what Finley gets but not Agriculture. Finley was agriculture critic in the last Parliament and Oda was Heritage critic.
• Diane Ablonczy is in but likely gets the very big task of managing HRDC. Some sources I’ve spoken to say Ablonczy is not in but that Solberg is in. Solberg travelled to Ottawa over the weekend. Ablonczy, I’m told, is still in Calgary.
• One source told me that most of the leading lights have been told that they should stay in the country this weekend and be ready to travel. Another source says that those who are not getting a cabinet job have already been given the bad news.
• Brian Jean (Fort McMurray-Athabaska) knows he’s not going into cabinet, but he sent his leader a DVD resume hoping for a decent Committee chair or other plum assignment. 

The Privy Council Office (PCO) announced late this afternoon that a third-party arbitrator ruled that David Dingwall (left), former president of the Royal Canadian Mint and Chretien-era cabinet minister, left his job at the mint “involuntarily” and that he is entitled to a significant severance package.

I reported on this story this evening for our national newscast.

Some primary documents and extended interviews:

First, the press release from the PCO was put out around 3:30 pm Ottawa time on Saturday. With a new government ready to be sworn in on Monday, the release comes out at a time when almost all political staff on the Liberal side have already handed in their government-issue BlackBerrys and cell phones so it was difficult reaching Liberal politicians or political spokespeople.

[Arbitrator] Mr. [George] Adams has concluded that Mr. Dingwall's departure was involuntary and the Government has a legal obligation to pay him $417,780, as well as associated pension benefits. The binding award of the arbitrator has the force of a court order, and the Government has respected the decision. This amount is subject to the provisions of the Income Tax Act.

We tried unsuccessfully to reach David Dingwall for his comment but, late Saturday night, his lawyer issued the following statement:

This release is issued on behalf of Heenan Blaikie and Nelligan O'Brien Payne, counsel to Mr. David Dingwall, and responds to earlier releases issued on February 4, 2006 by the Government of Canada and Mr. Stephen Harper.

 

The matter of Mr. Dingwall's departure was referred to binding arbitration before the Honourable George Adams, QC, a well-known and respected labour aribtrator and mediator.

 

“Mr. Dingwall is satisfied with that result and pleased that the government is

complying with its legal obligations.  He is also grateful that his situation has been independently reviewed and that he can now put behind him the difficulties of the

last several months”, said Janice Payne, lawyer with Nelligan O’Brien Payne.”

Prime minister-designate Stephen Harper issued a brief statement:

“After months of evasive answers in the House of Commons, we have now learned that David Dingwall’s departure from the Royal Canadian Mint was involuntary. This is contrary to the information given by the Liberal government. I am very disappointed that Parliament was misled on this matter. The public now has all the facts, and it will be the judge of the Liberals’ actions in this affair.” 

 

The Ottawa press gallery is filled with many capable veteran reporters and, in advance of any major event such as a budget or a cabinet shuffle, some wag in the gallery is often able to ferret out some advance details. Not so with the composition of Stephen Harper’s first cabinet. Many of my gallery colleagues — some of whom have sources they’ve been developing since the days of Pearson — say the Conservatives are running a very tight leak-proof ship.

I say all that as set-up to what I’ll call some informed speculation about who might and might not be in Harper’s first cabinet. None of what follows we know for sure. What follows is the result of my own consideration and triangulation after a series of interviews this week with party officials, Conservative MPs, party strategists and other journalists — none of whom are members of the small transition team that will actually make the cabinet decisions with Harper. None of those individuals I spoke to would agree to be named. Some hope to be in cabinet. Most are the type that work only on background.

So what do we know?

Well, first of all, there seems to be broad agreement among the chattering classes that Harper’s cabinet will be smaller than Martin’s. Martin ended his term with 38 cabinet ministers. Harper will have fewer. But how many is fewer? The most popular opinion around Ottawa is that fewer in Harper’s world means a cabinet of about 30 people. But at the end of this week and with the swearing-in set for 11 am Ottawa time on Monday, I have been told by well-placed sources to think much lower than that — perhaps as few as 25 ministers or even something radically smaller like 20 cabinet ministers.

There are some other parameters within which Harper will make his cabinet picks. Because Harper will have to stick some basic rules, we can come up right way with 10 sure-fire bet-the-house cabinet ministers. But before we do that, here are the parameters:

• The Deputy Prime Minister will not be Peter Mackay. Mackay, who is his party’s deputy leader, is very popular in his caucus and very popular among other MPs. But even those who are his fans admit that he sometimes has had trouble singing from the same hymn book as his leader. If the Prime Minister leaves the country, for example, the last thing Harper wants to do when he gets off the plane is put out some fires back home because his deputy PM had trouble staying “on message.”  For that reason alone, Mackay cannot be deputy PM.
• If the above isn’t enough to rule out Mackay as Deputy PM, he will be ruled out for strategic reasons, namely, the post of deputy PM will be used to consolidate and build on that surprising electoral support in Quebec. So,  who among the crop of rookie Quebec MPs — remember, the Tories had not a single seat in the province prior to Jan. 23 — will be deputy PM? Step forward, Lawrence Cannon, MP for Pontiac, and, before the election, Harper’s deputy chief of staff. Cannon was also a provincial cabinet minister in the government of Robert Bourassa.
• Harper, like all prime ministers, wants a cabinet that, as near as possible, represents the country. That means at least one cabinet minister from each province except for Prince Edward Island. (All four of PEI’s MPs are Liberals). So, if there must be at least one cabinet minister from each province, here are those bet-the-house cabinet candidates:
• Newfoundland and Labrador: Loyola Hearn (St. John’s South-Mount Pearl)
• Nova Scotia: Peter Mackay (Central Nova)
• New Brunswick: Greg Thompson (New Brunswick Southwest)
• Quebec: Lawrence Cannon (Pontiac)
• Ontario: Rob Nicholson (Niagara Falls)
• Manitoba: Vic Toews (Provencher)
• Saskatchewan: Carol Skelton (Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar)
• Alberta: Stephen Harper (Calgary Southwest)
• British Columbia: Jay Hill (Prince George-Peace River)
• Harper will appoint a Senator to his cabinet.  This Senator will be the Leader of the Government in the Senate. Good guess on this one might be Hugh Segal although I’m told Segal has agreed to do some of the “colour commentary” for the swearing-in ceremony on Monday. If he’s agreed to do that, does he already know he won’t be in cabinet? On the other hand, if he’s tapped to lead the government in the Senate on Sunday afternoon, he can always cancel his TV duties. If it’s not Hugh Segal, look to Marjory LeBreton to take this cabinet position.
• Alberta, I am told by several, will have three people sitting in cabinet. One, obviously, is Harper. At least one other will be Rona Ambrose (Edmonton-Spruce Grove). That leaves one more slot. Some believe Harper cannot ignore Diane Ablonczy (Calgary-Nose Hill).  On merit alone, she should be in the cabinet but she has two other strategic “pluses” — she’s a woman in a caucus that has too few women and she’s personally very close to Harper, having been the one who, famously, introduced a certain Laureen Teskey to a certain Stephen Harper. That said, I’ve heard from at least two sources that she will not be in cabinet in favour of Monte Solberg. Personally, I have trouble believing that Harper will be able to ignore the excellent work Jim Prentice (Calgary Centre-North) has done as Indian Affairs critic. So my handicapping of the Alberta slots runs this way: Harper, Ambrose, Ablonczy, Prentice, Solberg.  Some Conservatives who know more than I do tell my I’m flat wrong that the Alberta rankings as of Thursday night go: Harper, Ambrose, Solberg, Ablonczy, Prentice. In any event, in a 20–member cabinet, a maximum of two (and possibly only one) of the following get a seat at that table: Ablonczy, Solberg, Prentice, and Jason Kenney (Calgary Southeast). Not even rating a cabinet mention at this stage are several other Alberta MPs who, if they represented ridings elsewhere in the country would rate some consideration. They are: Rick Casson (Lethbridge), Rahim Jaffer (Edmonton-Strathcona), Ted Menzies (Macleod), Bob Mills (Red Deer), Deepak Obhrai (Calgary East), James Rajotte (Edmonton-Leduc), and John Williams (Edmonton-St. Albert).
• As for portfolios — Monte Solberg will not be doing finance. The smart money is on Jim Flaherty, who did the  finance thing when he was in the provincial cabinet of former Ontario premier Mike Harris. Now that’s where the smart money is but me — I guess I’m dumb money — I believe it will not be Flaherty and could well be someone like Rob Nicholson. Whoever holds finance will not come from Alberta and would likely come from Ontario.
• Vic Toews will not be justice minister. Though Toews is a former attorney general for Manitoba, he has, during his tenure as critic, boxed himself in from a policy perspective on some contentious issues for that file — same-sex marriage is an obvious one but he has been too hawkish on some other criminal justice issues. Someone who is perceived to be a bit more moderate may get justice — Peter Mackay is a possibility as he is a former Crown prosecutor and Justice would be decent consolation prize for not being Deputy PM. Still I think Mackay will end up with defence because …
• Gordon O’Connor may not be in cabinet, let alone defence. O’Connor, a former general, was the party’s defence critic in the last Parliament but lses in the Cabinet numbers game. Ontario will have between four and eight MPs and three are reserved for high-profile rookies – John Baird, Jim Flaherty, and Tony Clement. One is reserved for Nicholson, who was whip in the last Parliament, and was actually a f
  ederal cabinet minister, albeit for about 20 minutes when Kim Campbell was Prime Minister. After those four, I would put Ontario MPs like Diane Finley, Bev Oda, and Mike Chong and perhaps even Scott Reid ahead of O’Connor on the Ontario depth chart. If O’Connor does make it in, his most recent private sector work was as a defence industry lobbyist and that makes it problematic from a conflict-of-interest standpoint for him to be defence minister.  

OK — so who’s in the cabinet? Here’s my best guesses.

If the cabinet consist of just 20 members it will be. Possible portfolios are in italics. Guessing portfolios is almost ridiculously risky but kind of fun. I feel pretty good standing behind the picks I’ve made for people but very dodgy when it comes to the portfolios they might hold:

1. Stephen Harper – Calgary Southwest – Prime Minister / Intergovernmental Affairs
2. Hugh Segal – Senator – Ontario – Leader of the Government in the Senate
3. Lawrence Cannon – – Pontiac – Deputy Prime Minister  / Environment / Social Development
4. Peter Mackay – Central Nova – Defence / Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness
5. Rob Nicholson – Niagara Falls – Finance
6. Rona Ambrose – Edmonton-Spruce Grove – Foreign Affairs and International Trade
7. Tony Clement – Parry Sound Muskoka – Justice / FEDNOR
8. John Baird – Ottawa West-Nepean – Health
9. Vic Toews – Provencher – Natural Resources / Agriculture
10. Jay Hill – Prince George-Peace River – Government House Leader
11. Greg Thompson – New Brunswick Southwest – Labour and Housing / ACOA
12. Carol Skelton – Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar – Human Resources / Status of Women / Canadian Wheat Board
13. Loyola Hearn – St. John’s South-Mount Pearl – Fisheries / National Revenue
14. Stockwell Day – Okanagan-Coquihalla – Veterans Affairs
15. Josee Verner – Louis St. Laurent – Canadian Heritage / International Cooperation /
16. Maxime Bernier – Beauce – Transport / Industry / Economic Development for the Regions of Quebec
17. Jim Flaherty – Whitby-Oshawa – Treasury Board
18. James Moore – Port Moody–Westwood–Port Coquitlam – Public Works / Western Economic Diversification
19. Diane Ablonczy– Calgary-Nose Hill – Citizensh
    ip and Immigration
20. Jim Prentice – Calgary-Centre North – Indian Affairs and Northern Development

In this 20 member cabinet there are:

• Four women
• Five from Ontario, four from Alberta, three each from Quebec, British Columbia, and three from Atlantic Canada

If the cabinet consists of 25 members, it would include those plus the following. Possible portfolios are italicized:

1. Monte Solberg – Public Works OR Foreign Affairs and International Trade
2. Bev Oda – Human Resources OR Canadian Heritage OR Citizenship and Immigration
3. Steven Fletcher – Natural Resources
4. Lynne Yelich – Veterans Affairs / Canadian Wheat Board
5. Jean-Pierre Blackburn – International Co-operation / Economic Develompent for the Regions of Quebec

In this 25 member cabinet there then would be:

• Six women
• Six from Ontario, five from Alberta and four from Quebec, and three from British Columbia and from Atlantic Canada.

If the cabinet consists of 30 members, here are the additional five:

1. Betty Hinton – National Revenue
2. Jason Kenney – Calgary Southeast – Public Works
3. Bill Casey – Veterans Affairs
4. Diane Finley – Agriculture
5. Gordon O’Connor – Natural Resources

In this 30–member cabinet, there would be:

• Eight women
• Eight from Ontario, six from Alberta, four from Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada.

On the bench, ready to come in the game in case any of these prove unsuitable, we might find:

• Norman Doyle
• Mike Chong
• Helena Guergis
• Gary Lunn
• Scott Reid
• Garth Turner

When they move out of the Parliament Hill offices reserved for Opposition politicians and their staffers, the Conservatives will leave the rooms completely empty except for the furniture and a small box of files. The small box of files will be left behind for the Liberals who will now occupy the Opposition benches.

This small box of files, I am reliably informed by my Conservative moles, will be labelled “SECRET HIDDEN AGENDA” and, once they open them up, the Liberal staffers who inherit these Conservative offices, will find all seven volumes of the Gomery Inquiry.